Eurodollar University

Consumers can't afford groceries, so how is a lower reverse repo rate going to help them? Now that it is settled the Fed will cut rates next week, everyone wants to know by how much. The real story i…

Authorities in China continue to do everything they can to derail the country's globally synchronized bond rally. It continues to hit record low yields anyway in spite of increasingly desperate gover…

The ECB cut rates for the second time, as expected, though amidst a strong bond/bund market rally that has now completely un-inverted that yield curve. This comes at a time when major businesses like…

It was all banks all day yesterday. Basel rules foul-up. Warren Buffett continuing to dump BofA. Citi dumping on credit. Deutsche unloading CRE, or trying to. JP Morgan downgrading...itself. Most of …

There's no September here as interest rates continue to plunge. The two-year UST is at a record low relative to the Fed. In the past when the two-year has dropped like this it has meant nothing good.…

Interest rates continue to collapse in China even outpacing US Treasuries. Commodities are being crushed as prospects for the world's two largest economies are getting worse by the week; by the day. …

We know there are Fed rate cuts coming in September and that there is very good chance it will be 50 bps. Could policymakers also surprise by ending QT (not that it matters)? Might that be a first st…

More meltdowns across key markets, starting with the Treasury curve rapidly unwinding. Commodities are getting crushed, gasoline absolutely smoked. Swaps. Yen. The August payroll report only further …

Politicians always feel the need to do something even if they don't know why or what's actually wrong. That's all "price controls" really are since they sure don't control anything like prices. Unkno…

Carry trade is back! In reality, it never left. Not because of BoJ rates hikes or threats, rather all the growing evidence the US isn't at risk of recession, so many indications showing it's here. Oi…

While the world was focused on financial volatility and liquidations at the start of August, something odd happened at the Federal Reserve's Discount Window (DW). Given everything else that has gone …

Wholesale gasoline prices plunged in August to their lowest since the start of the year. This sounds like a positive, both for consumers as well as Fed policymakers and the disinflationary impact on …

The most significant macro data from the past week certainly wasn't GDP (it wasn't even the most important datapoint within its own series), instead it was personal savings. It is yet another confirm…

People keep saying the economy is in the toilet and the  US government keeps raising its estimate for GDP. The general public isn't wrong, GDP is. How do we know? Because that's what GDP says - its o…

New information from various sources all around the US service sector shows a downturn taking hold in that segment with employment signals turning more and more negative. It confirms the ongoing and …

German observers are saying the economy has reached crisis proportions and the reason is what the US economy's weakness is doing to the rest of the world. Rather than recover as many in Europe had ho…

Chinese e-commerce retailer Temu becomes the latest global consumer business to warn about the economy - exactly what bonds have been doing all year much to the growing frustration of authorities. Th…

Just as low interest rates are being validated in every way, some Economists like Nouriel Roubini are alleging that yields are instead being held down by noted monetary genius Janet Yellen who has th…

Jay Powell's Jackson Hole appearance and speech wasn't really about rate cuts. It was a sales job trying to sell you and as much of the world as possible on the Fed itself. Just making the pitch, how…

It wasn't just a pivot, Powell admits the US economy is in trouble as unemployment has already started rising. While that's it's own can of worms, there are also more monetary and financial considera…