Eurodollar University

Another recession warning and this one is related to brewing problems with unemployment. The September payroll report has put mainstream focus back on a soft- or no-landing scenario, but we've been t…

US economic weakness continues to show up outside the country as much as inside (last payroll estimate notwithstanding). Japan's government leading indicator just tanked, lowest value since 2020 and …

September's payroll estimate soared WAY above expectations. Is it a Fed miracle? This isn't the first time this has happened; in fact, each of the last two times the FOMC began cutting rates met eeri…

The bond rally is now one year old and it finally got to the point where central banks - including the Fed - are getting out of the way. Now that the market got what it "wants", there's no stopping i…

There are several ways to know that the second phase for the global recession has started. While there is never a clear demarcation between any stages or just recession, for that matter, there are te…

The Bank of Japan's very recent change of heart has apparently been strong enough to do the same for incoming Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Sounding aggressively hawkish where it came to interest ra…

Jay Powell again reiterated that he believes the economy is "on solid footing." The most recent data on the labor market shows he's either wrong or lying. There is no equivocating these latest estima…

Car stocks got clobbered as the global auto industry is heading for a major fall. There was a flood of announcements from carmakers all over the world this weekend as carmakers are facing very diffic…

Now that everyone is coming to grips with economic weakness, particularly where it comes to employment conditions, understanding the high potential for a lot more or worse, people are trying to figur…

Americans continue to say they're alarmed about job prospects. That's what consumer confidence is truly about, not consumer spending. Workers see and understand labor market shifts before they show u…

Not content to leave it with the PBOC's Oprah-fest of rate cutting, China's central authorities announced what's being called a massive stimulus push. The response has been near-euphoria in Chinese a…

It's not just USTs. Rates are falling all over the world faster in shorter maturities than long. That means a global wave of un-inversions and bull steepening right as more and more central banks pla…

Chinese authorities held a surprise press conference early this morning where PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng did his best Oprah Winfrey impression handing out rate cuts to practically everyone. All that…

More confirmation that recession is coming back with a vengeance in Europe. The latest data indicates the dangers this time around including jobs and layoffs. This situation in Europe is hardly uniqu…

The Fed just cut its benchmark rate by 50-bps even though jobless claims are among the lowest in their history. At the same time, CPI shelter prices have accelerated. Neither seems like it would warr…

FedEx's CEO admitted some truth about the Fed's rate cut this week, and the stock was immediately punished for it, dropping 15% on Friday. This raises a bunch of questions, starting with: what happen…

Now that the Fed has done it, everyone wants to get in on the act. They call it "undershooting" which is just a fancy word for "bonds were right." Switzerland, Canada, even the Europeans all thinking…

The Fed cut its benchmark rates by 50 bps in a panicky move to catch up to both the economy and the marketplace. Reaction in the latter was muted because this wasn't unexpected. All the FOMC did was …

People imagine a recession is when masses of people are being laid off and so consumer spending isn't just negative, it must be crashing. While those can happen in a downturn, they tend to show up at…

Americans' hopes and dreams of better opportunities have utterly crashed and burned over the past five months. This isn't about more price increases, rather how those in the past have combined with r…