Eurodollar University

Central banks don't hike rates during a recession. Or do they? The Bank of Japan just did and for the second time. By doing it, BoJ is laying itself bare; both in terms of transparently acting politi…

Hiring in the US absolutely plunged in June, so much you really have to see it to believe it. At the same time, global fast food giant McDonalds reported lower same store sales for the first time sin…

A whole lot going on in the eurodollar shadows. Record high repo pool (reverse repo) at the Fed. Bull steepening even more aggressively outside of Treasuries. Primary dealers absolutely hoarding coll…

According to the latest update, US consumers are out of savings. As nominal incomes have slowed way down, consumers have cut back only somewhat mainly spending on goods - causing the goods recession …

Companies around the economy are increasingly warning about the negative effects of the goods recession, one after another missing revenue and sales targets/expectations. The latest from several of t…

A majority of Americans believe the US is in recession and has been for some time. Second quarter GDP just came out wildly above expectations. So is everyone wrong? Not quite. In fact, the GDP estima…

The Treasury curve continues to make escalating even decisive bull moves. It's not difficult to see why, as another global consumer company admits its having trouble selling its products and in this …

Replay of the livestream Member Q&A 100 epic discussion. George. Jim. Steve. Mike. Eric. Brent. Emil and Jeff back together again. Two hours of back and forth. Including why Home Alone lied to you.

Th…

China's dollar woes have jumped in recent months, so much that they've come out of the eurodollar shadows enough to impact the onshore banking system in an unexpected way. Foreign holdings of negotia…

To way too many Americans and other workers, this is already a recession of opportunity. Without the major statics yet to show it, mainstream commentary has mocked their plight as a "vibe-cession." N…

All year all anyone has heard is the Fed and its rate cuts. Soft landings imply a little weakness but no worry, Jay Powell will cut rates once maybe twice and everything will be just fine. The only q…

In the midst of other major warnings, here comes another substantial one. Copper has moved way past its supply squeezed record high from just two months ago and is now crashing. At the same time, gol…

Swaps are of paramount importance to the financial world, priced by the very monetary system itself. As a consequence, swap market indications are even more critical than the yield curve. But what do…

Another part of the yield curve un-inverted, this time the short to long segment. Demonstrating the perpetual inability to make sense of it, mainstream sources are suggesting some "Trump trade" is be…

It started Friday when China's central bank reported more than just new record low credit stats, the deterioration over the past few months has been astounding. That obviously spread to the Chinese e…

Why does the Japanese government keep intervening trying to prop up the yen, and why does it keep failing? This isn't just about the yen or Japan, nor is it completely a matter of what's unfolding ri…

There was an unnoticed yet absolutely critical detail in the June CPI report that pointed to a lot more than just benign disinflation, a development that has only rarely been observed in decades of h…

The June consumer price estimates at first seemed like good news. Two months in a row at low and now negative changes. But these past two months have shown a little more weakness than most had bargai…

Chinese authorities are becoming increasingly desperate over their inability to stabilize any of the economy, banking system, or markets. CNY keeps going down, as does the economy. Banks in China are…

From 'strong and resilient' to 'uh oh' in a heartbeat. The unemployment rate has intruded itself on the soft landing narrative, forcing a near-total rethink of the situation all across the mainstream…