CPI Inflation clocks in hotter than expected, with more data to come; car insurance inflation is an out-of-the-blue surprise (unless you recently renewed your policy!) What does the Fed do next? Mark…
Last year's market rally amid the AI chase and hopefulness for Fed rate cuts tracked right along a narrow channel around the 20-DMA. Then came Summer, and a market correction that hit in October. Mar…
It's CPI Day (with m/m inflation clocking in with a .4% increase, and a y/y gain to 3.8%, hotter than expected). Sheila Jackson-Lee's science experiment; the NFIB Survey does not bode well for small …
Markets continue to hang onto support at the 20-DMA by its fingertips. Expectations are for a .3% increase in inflation last month. (There's a mini-scandal swirling over the BLS releasing the data ea…
Some are disappointed the eclipse did not herald the Rapture; markets are holding firm at 20-DMA. NFIB preview vs CEO Confidence; why small business' mood matters. Interest Rates in different states;…
Our advice to NOT have a knee-jerk reaction to last Thursday's markets dip below the 20-DMA was well founded, as markets were able to hold on to that support. As of this moment, last week's break in …
Eclipse-mania is out of control. Fed speakers confirm they'll cut rates, but in no rush to do so. Jobs numbers tantalize markets; the impact of immigration on employment. Boomers & Gen-Z plans to spl…
The mood in the markets for the past few months has been, so long as we're on the 20-DMA, don't worry about it; markets just keep going up. Well...on Thursday, markets took out the 20-DMA, then ralli…
Market and economic data preview: How to respond in current environment. The U.S. is still the best house in a bad neighborhood. Fed folks now saying it's possible to have no rate cuts this year. Are…
In this week's Fedapolooza, Fed spokespersons seem to be growing less hawkish about rates. Inflation is simply a function of supply & demand. There is a high correlation between GDP/CPI and interest …
The Bernie Madoff Trendline remains in place: Monday and Tuesday's selloffs were followed by Wednesday's recovery after bouncing off the 20-DMA trendline. The buying algo's kicked in to buy thie dips…
The JOLTS survey rate continues to slow, coincident with a slowing economy; interestingly, retail hiring has dropped sharply, despite increased retail demand (another example of divergent indicators)…
Markets have been in a "perfect trend channel" for months, the top of which runs right along the 20-DMA. Today will be a test of this phenomenon again. Just because we may violate the 20-DMA does not…
Markets delivered a post-April Fool's drop, while manufacturing metrics moved back into the expansion zone. Markets have now dropped the chances of a June interest rate cut to 50%; markets continue t…
Markets have been trading within a particular range; their ability to break above that range may be impacted by the outcome of April 15, with previous tax laws expiring: More Americans are going to f…
PCE Inflation is weaker, yet consumer spending remains robust; the Atlanta Fed is forecasting 2.3% GDP for Q2. Is this period nirvana for the Fed? The Relative Strength Index is stuck at 70. Markets…
Markets continue in a low volatility advance and could set another all-time high today. Markets are tending to be "floating higher," with little to deter investors. Economic data continues to come in…
Consumer confidence for stock prices remains high, despite mixed econonic data. Asset prices are rising faster than earnings, as optimism is extremely elevated. Equal Weight Index is underperforming …
The Equal Weight Index has begun gaining traction, closing the gap with the S&P. Mid-caps have actually out-paced the Equal Weight Index, but still lags the S&P. Small-caps are the biggest laggard, …
The Sentiment Index is hanging in, despite weakening regional surveys; economists see no recession in sight; bank reserves have been rising since October 2022. End of quarter rebalancing is generatin…
00:46:18 |
Wed 27 Mar 2024
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