Eurodollar University

A Financial Times opinion column avers not only is a "post-dollar world coming" but that it is "near" and that the "decline could last... longer". We review the argument, disagree, and note no discus…

When an emerging market central bank goes off-balance sheet to fight currency depreciation it means the world's monetary shortage has entered the next, more dangerous phase. The Indian rupee is at re…

When an emerging market central bank goes off-balance sheet to fight currency depreciation it means the world's monetary shortage has entered the next, more dangerous phase. The Indian rupee is at re…

The San Francisco Fed reveals why US consumer prices accelerated more than other nations (i.e. stimulus checks). Also, the SF Fed explains why and when prices accelerated during 2020-22 (i.e. demand …

The Treasury Bill is the most liquid capital market asset of the monetary system. Now the Federal Reserve's 'quantitative' 'tightening' could liquify the dehydrated system (making Bills market-availa…

China's economic results for July were "gruesome", the rest of the year not been much better. That's troubling enough but when the yuan doesn't move a scintilla for weeks it suggests the People's Ban…

Is there an unstoppable transformation—à la the internet in the 1990s—taking place in mining, minerals and energy? What are the supply and demand fundamentals for lithium?  Where might an investor lo…

The calendar spread (1- and 3-month) in the oil futures market (West Texas Intermediate) is compressing and is THIS close to being in contango. That would be the oil market saying, 'We don't see the …

A recent US Treasury auction for one-month Treasury Bills showed heavy premiums paid by the market to secure the global monetary system's most desired financial collateral. It signals ongoing collate…

The European Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2011-12 was the final nail in the post-Cold War Globalization coffin; it proved beyond a doubt that a global money/credit/collateral crisis was not a one-time ev…

If you all feel bad about the economy than the economy will be bad and you all are acting weird, so says a recent New York Times opinion column. We discuss whether concrete economic signals / data pr…

Today the repurchase agreement is the backstop, the 'lender of last resort', for the global monetary system. Over a century ago it was the Federal Reserve that created the repo market. But funnily en…

On August 9, 2007 the second largest bank in Europe - BNP Paribas - kicked off the Global Financial Crisis (2007-09) and the Silent Depression (2007-2?). It started with three illiquid money market f…

The Payroll Report (Establishment Survey) is not wrong but it is inappropriate. Heavy statistical dampening prevents the payroll report from showing economic inflections. Meanwhile, the Household Sur…

Central bankers use ‘Term Premia’ to cover for their grave, fundamental mistakes: A) not understanding bond markets, and B) putting themselves at the center of the monetary system.

****DISCLOSURES****
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The European Central Bank raised rates in July 2008 because consumer prices were too high; the Global Financial Crisis climax came next. They did it again, in July 2011, for the same reason; the Euro…

James Bullard, St. Louis Fed chief, says the yield curve is twisted by the inflation surge, and may not be a recession message. Indeed, markets are twisting it because they have confidence the centra…

On May 20, 1982 the Fed held an emergency conference call for which transcripts are missing (on purpose? by accident?) to solve the "Drysdale Problem". They 'solved' it by focusing on the trees and i…

What if Japan's bond and currency markets aren't really about Japan at all?

----EP. 266 REFERENCES----
Global Euro$ Confirmation: http://www.marketsinsiderpro.com/
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.…

The US Treasury Department's Treasury International Capital report for the wild month of May 2022 goes a long way to describing our current economic and monetary predicament. 

----EP. 265 REFERENCES--…