Eurodollar University

Stocks tanked, bond yields soared, the dollar jumped. All because the Fed doesn't know what it's going to do now? Partly, yeah. There's a lot more to the story, however. Given the tortuous road to ra…

Canada. France. Germany. What do they have in common? Central banks in each are cutting rates. Also, their governments have either collapsed or, Canada, about to. Why? Same reason there are rate cuts…

Interest rates worldwide are hanging at the edge of a cliff. It may not seem like it from the current focus on the Fed and the possible pause in its rate cutting. This doesn't mean other central bank…

The dollar continues to threaten to make a big move higher. Not only is the main dollar index right at the top end of its multi-year range, the buck is creating big problems for major currencies. The…

Update on T-bills. Last week's wild auctions repeated this week, only with flipped maturities. Other related data confirm the sharp demand as well as dealer participation in it. We discuss the implic…

Swiss shock - again. Now fearing outright deflation and over the next six months, SNB pulls the trigger on a fifty. Back in March, amidst the "sticky" "inflation" freakout, when the SNB was the first…

Here comes Chinese central bank bond buying, but this is no QE. A report surfaced in China Daily strongly implying the Chinese government is beyond just exploring something called money-financed fisc…

Canada's official unemployment rate jumped in November, reaching its highest level since 2016 (outside 2020). And that was only the beginning. Given how highly synchronized US Treasury rates are with…

China's top government body, the politburo, attempted to reignite the "stimulus" sentiment with another wordy communication chock full of more promises and platitudes. To begin with, this doesn't bod…

The BLS labor data had a chance to show that October's weakness really was just a combination of one-off factors, instead did everything to confirm that it wasn't those at all. That includes the head…

Wild week for a market that's supposed to be boring and go unnoticed. For the second straight month, heavy buying in bills right ahead of the payroll report. Except, in this case, buyers went utterly…

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Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Recessions are a process and what past episodes all have in common is one key ingredient. Rather, one element that comes up missing every time. This critical factor doesn't just end up being the diff…

The Christmas shopping season is off to a poor start, with dim results coming in from various sources showing lower traffic and slower spending. The reason is easy enough to identify, starting with t…

After a weekend of disappointing macro data (which was characterized as "mixed"), China's markets tanked. Not stocks, of course, instead more record lows in bonds plus a very sharp drop in CNY. As we…

European banks have added a massive amount of government bonds to their holdings. At the same time, they refuse to lend into the real economy. Europe's depositories are hardly alone as we see the sam…

India's RBI just recently has gone *massively* short the US dollar and in the NDF market, too, just to keep the crumbling rupee from sinking even more. This won't work exposing the central bank to lo…

An entire batch of corporate reports from retailers to computer-makers, just in time for the key holiday season's critical moment. Each one warning that consumers in the US just aren't there, being h…

Japan's yen has diverged from other currencies over the past few weeks, strengthening against the dollar. That suggests more carry trading dynamics, an interplay between different versions of them. Y…

Several critical financial measures continue to drop, reaching rather obscene comparisons. At first, that doesn't seem to make any sense; how would today be seen as similar to February 2009, for exam…