Episode 12 - Empirical Evidence and Cold Hard Statistics For Survivor

What's up with me? Just trying to get cast on Survivor. How about you?

This month I've been stockpiling evidence for why I should be cast on Survivor in my #CastConnorOnSurvivor campaign. It's time to lay out what I have so far. If you see this Jeff—nice.

Empirical Evidence

In 13 days, I've watched 7 seasons of Survivor. I'm a student of the game.

An abundance of support has come my way on social media. I sincerely appreciate the people who've reached out, including those who thought I've already made it onto the show.

I made a sketch because why not?

Cold Hard Statistics:

At the beginning of February, I put out an Instagram poll that asked, "Would I do well on Survivor?"

Here is the data I received in return. 

• Yes: 28


• No: 8

"P" denotes the probability of a certain event occurring or a certain parameter being true for a certain population

P prime, sometimes referred to as “P-hat” and henceforth to as p’, is a reliable representation of p only if the sample is large enough and is truly random.

The formula for p’ is X/n.

X = the number of successes  n = the size of the sample

Our Variables:

n= 36  X=28

therefore,

p’= 28/36 = 0.7777777778

What do we do next?

What we’re trying to calculate is a 95% confidence level, henceforth CL, in our sample. To do this we must calculate the Error Bound Proportion, or EBP.

EBP = (z (alpha/2) * (squareroot ((p’q’)/1n) 

where q’ = 1 - p’

q’ = 1 - 0.7777777778, so q’ = 0.2222222222

Since CL = 0.95, then α = 1 – CL = 1 – 0.95 = 0.05

Therefore, (a / 2) = 0.025.

But we still need to do that z thing.

Use the TI-83, 83+, or 84+ calculator command invNorm(0.975,0,1) to find z0.025

To save you the trouble (z ( alpha / 2 ) = 1.96.

Now that we have our whole formula, we can calculate

EBP = 1.96 * (squareroot ( ( 0.7777777778 * 0.2222222222 ) / 36) = 0.1358083051

Therefore, Connor Kwiecien’s Instagram @Connor_Kwiecien estimate with 95% confidence that between 90.58% & 63.42% think that I would do well on Survivor.

I'm 100% confident it is at the upper limit. 

Do you see an error in my math? Let me know!

Check out my YouTube channel to view my application videos coming out this week and let me know if you think I've got what it takes to win the title of sole survivor.

To send me a question, connect with me on Instagram, @connor_kwiecien, via email, [email protected], or head to my website connorkwiecien.com.