🎙️ Upside #51 - Project Eurhope - SaaS Is Sexy Again - The EU US Trade Reality

Upside is for anyone interested in the European tech and startup ecosystem. We discuss the real stories that live behind the headlines.

Recorded: Friday August 1st 2025
Hosts: VCs - Mads, Lomax, and Dan

00:50 – Big Tech Earnings Blowouts
Massive Meta and MS uplift. Massive efficiency gains via AI, despite headcount cuts. Microsoft: $13B AI cloud run rate. Growth driven by CoPilot and Azure.

11:20 – Fundamentally Flawed Figures 
Inflation sticky around 2.9%. Rates stuck. Why equity markets remain bullish despite macro pressure. AI productivity gains seen as the buffer against high rates. Not the dot-com? 

17:42 – Europe’s No Mag7
The sobering gap, but optimism for emerging EU-based players. Nurture “green shoots” of European innovation.

18:34 – Markets - Figma IPO – Is SaaS Back?
Massive Day 1 pop: from \$20B to \$65B market cap. 91% gross margin, 132% NDR, strong enterprise traction. Optimism for SaaS exits and public market appetite.

26:27 – Markets - Anthropic vs. Figma – AI Valuations in Context
Anthropic at \$170B valuation (\~30x revenue).Contrasted with Figma’s 60x multiple. SaaS more stable; AI still in sandbox.

27:23 – Markets - Return of Risk Appetite: Firefly & Space IPOs
Firefly targeting a $5B IPO despite revenue.

29:26 – Liberation Day 2.0 – Trump’s Trade Deal with the EU**
EU commits to $750B in US energy, $600B in US manufacturing investment. Concern over EU sovereignty and realism of enforcement.

37:54 – Implications for European Startups
Software firms largely unaffected. Hardware or hybrid firms need to rethink supply chains.Consumer hardware most at risk from tariffs.

40:17 – Geopolitical Signalling and the Long Game
EU’s long-term strategy will shift towards self-reliance and defence. Upside for local tech ecosystems.

41:23 – AI Corner – Latest Deals & Developments.
Anthropic: From $1B to $6B ARR in months. $5B raise underway.
Alibaba: Launches Claude Code competitor for 1/60th the cost.
Cognigy (Germany): Acquired for $1B by NICE (CX automation).
n8n: Open source automation tool now valued at \$1.5B.
OpenAI Study Mode: Personalised learning agents; education disruption incoming.

47:26 – Is Germany Becoming Europe’s AI Leader?
Germany, France, and the UK all seeing strong AI momentum. European AI isn’t centralised – strength lies in distributed hubs.

50:01 – Why Billion-Dollar Exits Are No Longer a Big Deal
Cognigy, Oxford Ionics → seen as “modest” compared to US mega-deals. Yet: exits like these power Europe’s VC ecosystem - billion-dollar exits still matter.

51:00 – Project Europe – What Europe Needs
Harry Stebbings’ “Project Europe”: €200k per startup, under-25 founders.6 companies in batch one: drones, brain-computer interfaces, cybersecurity, robotics. Focused on deep tech and hard problems – not consumer fluff. A bet on Europe’s technical edge and early-stage ecosystem.

56:30 – Challenges Ahead for Project Europe
Accelerators attract top-tier founders? Signalling risk? Success will require time, patient capital, and structural support.

63:57 – Stopping the Brain Drain
EU founders often register in the US, but real drain is sub-10%. IPO path must be restored in EU. Public markets offer cheaper capital vs. growth equity.

65:30 – Deal(s) of the Week
CyberArk acquired by Palo Alto Networks for $25B
Project Q (Germany) raises €7.5M for battlefield software. One to watch.