174. Canaries in the Coal Mine? Perplexity's $34bn bid for Chrome; Fed Cut Fallout, and Private Credit PIK Concerns

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This week, Kristen and Jen dive straight into the finance headlines with a M&A story: Perplexity, an AI startup valued at $18 billion, has made a $34 billion all-cash bid for Google Chrome. Kristen unpacks why this is virtually unprecedented in dealmaking, explaining how the size mismatch, lack of financing capacity, and Chrome’s not-for-sale status make the offer so unusual. They revisit the AOL–Time Warner merger as the closest (though still imperfect) precedent and debate whether this might be the “canary in the coal mine” for overheated AI valuations.

Jen follows with a contrarian take on the Federal Reserve: even if the Fed cuts rates in September as the market expects, long-term interest rates might actually rise. She explains how inflation pressures, market expectations, and a “cash trap” dynamic could lead to higher mortgage rates, an unintended consequence that would frustrate borrowers hoping for relief. The discussion also touches on softening labor market signals, political pressure on the Fed, and why rate policy in a high-inflation environment can move markets in unexpected ways.

The episode then shifts to signs of stress in private credit markets, focusing on the rise of “PIK” (payment-in-kind) interest arrangements. Kristin explains how PIK structures work, why an uptick, especially in “bad PIK” where struggling borrowers opt to defer cash interest, can be an early warning for financial trouble, and how this fits into the broader credit cycle. They close with a debate on networking ethics after a viral Reddit thread about circulating analyst email lists, and the importance of genuine, trust-based connections in breaking into competitive industries.

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