1. EachPod

Labor Force Participation Rate Plunges to 38-Year Low – Ep. 92

Author
Peter Schiff
Published
Fri 03 Jul 2015
Episode Link
https://schiffradio.com/labor-force-participation-rate-plunges-to-38-year-low-ep-92/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=labor-force-participation-rate-plunges-to-38-year-low-ep-92



* Happy 4th of July to everyone

* Unfortunately, we have given up our independence to government tyranny

* I will be back on the radio again - I'll be on the Alex Jones Show every first and third Friday of every month when the Non-Farm Payroll numbers come out

* I will be doing tomorrow's show - the second hour of the show

* The Non-Farm Payroll Report came out early this week because of the 4th of July holiday

* The consensus forecast of 230,000 jobs was close to the actual number 223,000

* The unemployment rate of 5.5% last month was expected to come in at 5$% - actually came in at 5.3%, the lowest unemployment rate in 7 years

* Great news, right? Not great news

* The devil is in the details

* The Labor Force Participation Rate - 62.9 last month - plunged down to 62.6%

* This is the lowest rate since 1977

* 432,000 people dropped out of the labor force in June - twice the number of people who got jobs in June

* Once again, these new jobs are low-paying service sector jobs

* During the Obama "recovery" we have lost 1.4 million manufacturing jobs and gained 1.4 million wait staff and bartender jobs

* According to the Household Survey 640,000 Americans left the labor force in June

* Now we have a record 93.6 million Americans no longer in the labor force

* The Household Survey reports 349,000 jobs were lost during the month

* The only net gain - 161,000 part time jobs - represent a net loss

* The Household Survey shows that we lost good jobs

* When asked about the Labor Force Participation Rate number, Secretary of Labor Perez commented, "One month does not a trend make."

* This trend has been going down every month of every year that President Obama has been in office

* Janet Yellen announced that the Fed would not start raising rates without "further improvement in the labor market"

* She specifically cited the Labor Force Participation Rate and proliferation of part-time jobs as troubling trends

* We are now further from that goal

* The demographic leaving the labor force are young people who cannot find jobs

* Average Hourly Earnings, to increase .2, actually came in flat, at zero

* Last month's .3 increase was revised down to .2, failing to beat the estimate

* Weekly Jobless Claims expected to come in at 270,000, actually came in at 281,000 and I think this number is going to go higher

* There have been fewer hires and fewer fires than expected because the estimates were based on the Birth/Death model, that is proving inaccurate

* Factory Orders are down for 9 of the last 10 months - this month we were looking for -.3% and we got -1%

* April was originally reported as -.4 but was revised down to -.7

* Year over year Factory Orders are down 6.3% (adjusted)

* The only time we have seen numbers this weak is during a recession

* The economy is in worse shape now that when QE3 was launched

* Yet the markets did not react to these bad numbers

* They still cling to the narrative that the Fed is going to raise rates because the U.S. economy is in good shape

* Article on Motley Fool refers to me as someone who was "right for the wrong reason"

* The misquoted me on my prediction on (mortgage)interest rates going up

* After I made that statement, interest rates did go up for 2 years - they did not go down until after the bubble burst

* The Fed raised interest rates from 1% to 5-1/2 percent

* This quote was taken out of context - read my 2007 book, "Crash Proof"

* There are dozens of articles about the real estate bubble 2004-2007

* The record shows that I was right for all the right reasons

* I did think the dollar would go down after the housing bubble burst,

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