Navigating Growth and Geopolitics: A Mid-Year Outlook on China with Tianchen Xu (Part 1)

In Part 1 of our conversation with Tianchen Xu, Senior Economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit, we dig into China’s macro performance in the first half of 2025—and what the future may hold. Tianchen analyzes Q1’s headline 5.4% growth, discusses why the London trade truce between the US and China matters, and highlights what Western media narratives often miss when reporting on China’s economy.

We also explore how resilient China’s economy really is in the face of renewed US tariffs, whether the truce will hold, and how all of this impacts international brands and investor sentiment. For anyone navigating China’s economic landscape in 2025, this episode offers a level-headed, data-driven perspective.

Discussion Points:

• Why Q1 2025’s 5.4% GDP growth may be more complicated than it looks
• The London US-China tariff agreement: what it covers and what could unravel
• How China’s supply chain reconfiguration may insulate it from future tariff shocks
• What Western media gets wrong about China’s macro fundamentals
• The role of state-led investment and policy buffers in maintaining growth momentum