U.S. Economy Outlook: Navigating Between No Landing and Soft Landing
- Author
- 42 Macro
- Published
- Tue 17 Dec 2024
- Episode Link
- https://42macro.com/podcasts-macro-minute?id=5974d16db56249ccbaac166609cd25b0&utm_campaign_id=podcast&content=mm_2024-12-17&utm_source=mp3&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=macrominute&utm_id=podcast&utm_term=episode
This podcast dives into the latest November data, highlighting strong retail and auto sales versus weaker industrial production, and discusses how this divergence points to a 'No Landing' scenario for the U.S. economy despite mixed signals. The discussion covers portfolio strategy, quantitative signals like the VAMS, market regime insights, and potential risks such as liquidity disruptions and fiscal challenges. Additionally, the podcast explores tactical asset allocation and examines the implications of TGA spend-down trends for Q1 2025 amid evolving Fed policy.
