The Quantum Threat and Opportunity with Dr. Michele Mosca

In this episode, Dr. Michele Mosca co-founder of the Institute for Quantum Computing, professor at the University of Waterloo, and leading voice in quantum safe cryptography, joins Francis Gorman to discuss the looming risks and opportunities of quantum computing.

He explains how his early skepticism in the 1990s turned into conviction once quantum error correction was discovered, making scalable quantum computers a real possibility. Michele outlines his “Mosca’s theorem,” which frames the urgency of preparing for quantum threats: the time to migrate to quantum-safe cryptography must be shorter than the time it will take for adversaries to weaponize quantum computers.

Key themes include:

• Quantum timelines: From early doubts to today’s multi-platform race, he estimates a 10% chance of cryptographically relevant quantum computers within 5 years and 30% within 10.
• Quantum risk: The greatest threat is to cryptographic trust, confidentiality, integrity, and authenticity of digital systems potentially destabilizing governments, finance, and infrastructure.
• Cryptographic resilience: Organizations must adopt agility and long-term planning, building cryptographic inventories, migration strategies, and centers of excellence, rather than treating it as a lone CISO problem.
• Lessons from Y2K and beyond: Unlike Y2K, the quantum threat won’t “break systems overnight” but will erode confidentiality and trust if not addressed early.
• Positive opportunities: Quantum technologies also promise advances in materials, energy, healthcare, and new cryptographic tools, but only if societies prepare now.

Michele closes by urging businesses and governments to act quickly, not out of fear, but to ensure resilience and position themselves to benefit from the quantum era.

https://globalriskinstitute.org/publication/an-updated-methodology-for-quantum-risk-assessment/