Mixed Bag — Fed Holds Rates, Corporate Earnings Falter, but CRE Outlook Sentiment Rises

While the Fed held rates steady as expected, the bigger story may be what's underneath:

Corporate earnings show tariffs are starting to bite.  Economic data prints are increasingly mixed. And the labor market is still holding out. But for how long? Manus takes a minute to assess the Fed funds rate stalemate. And he provides a thought about why a rate cut might be prudent right now. Dianne sees 2025 shaping up like déjà vu: rate cuts always just out of reach, as the market tiptoes through cooling demand and growing consumer strain.

CRE, though, keeps humming. July deal volume jumped. LightBox’s own market sentiment survey shows steady to strong expectations for the second half. Phase I ESA activity rose 13% year over year. Multifamily is leading with major trades in New York City and the South Bronx. Even office is moving, with buyers chasing discounts and pricing finally settling. The team also flags a growing concern that data centers are starting to monopolize power, labor, and capital, which may potentially strain resources for other projects.

The episode close reflecting on the loss of Blackstone’s Wesley LePatner. A respected leader and fierce advocate for women in commercial real estate, her passing is a profound loss for the entire CRE finance community. Our condolences to all the victims of the tragedy.

00:15 Federal Reserve's Decision and Economic Impacts

01:34 Tariffs and Their Economic Consequences

04:19 Labor Market Insights

11:05 LightBox Midyear CRE Market Sentiment Survey Results

20:17 Multifamily and Mixed-Use Transactions

26:51 Office Market Trends

33:44 Data Centers and Construction Resources

38:57 Tragedy in Midtown: Remembering Wesley LePatner

Have questions for the pod team? Send them to [email protected].

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