Midyear 2025 CRE Pulse Check and Outlook – Navigating the Second Half

It’s halftime in 2025, and The CRE Weekly Digest team is back with a data-driven gut check on a market that’s proving more resilient than expected. Despite tariff shocks, geopolitical tension, and consumer gloom, CRE hasn’t blinked. In fact, capital is flowing, transaction volume is up, and nine-digit retail deals are making a surprise comeback.

Manus sees signs of a second half surge, powered by engaged lenders, an expanding buyer pool, and the long-awaited return of Big Tech to the office market. Dianne flags soft spots, namely inflation pressure, GDP drag, and the retail sector’s tariff exposure, but concedes this market doesn’t rattle easily.

The team also breaks down the latest CRE Activity Index, big bets from Apple, and whether fireworks should be tariff-exempt in the Big Beautiful Bill. The collective forecast: proceed, but don’t skip due diligence.

And in true Digest fashion, they close with song picks that capture the CRE mood: Van Halen, Mumford & Sons, and a dose of Kelly Clarkson.

We want your take. LightBox just launched the Midyear 2025 CRE Market Survey to hear from experts like you across valuation, due diligence, lending, investment, and brokerage. We’re exploring your reflections on the first half of 2025 and your outlook for the months ahead. Click here to take the survey >  

The survey closes Friday, July 18th, and we’ll be sharing the results shortly thereafter. 

01:09 Market Resilience and Key Takeaways

05:35 Lightbox CRE Activity Index Analysis

10:15 Transaction Trends and Big Deals

13:21 Interest Rates and Fed Meetings

19:57 Selective Hiring Trends and Labor Market Insights

22:04 Optimism and Reservations for the Second Half

31:20 Sector Rapid-Fire Forecasts: Office, Multifamily, Industrial, and Retail

Have questions for the pod team? Send them to [email protected].

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