The Two Jacks - Episode 123 - Patterson, Palestine & Pendlebury: Crime, War and the Business End of Footy

As usual, AI slop shownotes for anyone who wants to read them. Enjoy!

-----------------------------------------------

Content warning: violent crime, child deaths, war, famine, and historical mass-casualty events.

— Description — Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack cover a packed week: the Erin Patterson verdict and sentencing expectations; the Folbigg exoneration and compensation debate; AI’s promised productivity vs. creators’ rights; New Zealand politics and travel flows; Australia’s recognition of Palestine and the “day-after” security problem in Gaza; the 80th anniversary debate over Hiroshima/Nagasaki; U.S. housing, tariffs, and political incentives; food-stamp restrictions; Trump–Putin optics; pasta wars over cacio e pepe; plus NRL, AFL, cricket (Darwin’s case for a Test), and rugby’s Giteau Law change. They finish with an Iranian TV claim on “weather manipulation” and call it a week.

Summary of key points

• Courts & media: Patterson likely long sentence; Folbigg’s payout criticized; cautionary tales of media rush-to-judgment.
• Tech & policy: AI productivity promises vs. creator consent; scraping controversies; children’s online safety beyond blunt bans.
• Geopolitics: Australia to recognize Palestine; post-war Gaza security unsolved; Hiroshima/Nagasaki debate reopened.
• Economics: U.S. housing pressures; tariffs as stealth consumption tax; political incentives realign.
• Sport: NRL finals picture tightening; AFL contenders wobble; cricket’s northern push; Wallabies selection flexibility returns.

— Timestamped segments — 00:00:01 — Cold open & banter

• Hong Kong heat, black short-sleeve “uniform,” bulk-buying Marks & Spencer basics.
• Light teasing about Melbourne’s love of black attire.

00:01:22 — Erin Patterson: new disclosures, appeal posture, sentencing

• Resurfaced material about alleged prior poison attempts on Simon Patterson (penne bolognese, chicken korma, vegetable wrap).
• Serious illness and surgery for Simon Patterson after the korma.
• Expectation of a long sentence for premeditated murder; talk of 35–45 years non-parole.
• Prison remand at Dame Phyllis Frost; media rumors inside; psychiatric assessments and caution about conflating autism with criminality.
• John Ferguson’s reporting; documentaries and books incoming; a true crime podcaster’s about-face post-disclosures.
• Confidence in trial thoroughness; appeal anticipated but unlikely to overturn on process.

00:12:30 — Kathleen Folbigg: exoneration, “skinny” compensation, media reckoning

• NSW offers ~$2m after 20 years in prison; hosts call it low given Lindy Chamberlain’s historical payout and inflation.
• Books still in print labeling Folbigg a serial killer; calls for accountability among journalists.
• Comparison with Patterson media handling—less rush to judgment this time.

00:19:19 — Productivity Commission on AI: 4.3% productivity vs. IP rights

• Light-touch copyright reforms vs. creators’ consent/compensation.
• Corporate uptake (e.g., JPMorgan’s uplift) and the productivity juggernaut.
• Tech scraping (e.g., use of pirated libraries) and lawsuits (e.g., Sarah Silverman case).
• Social media harms and late-stage regulation; kids outmaneuvering adult-written rules.
• Data demands to verify age -> more privacy tradeoffs; grooming on gaming platforms; neurodivergent vulnerability.

00:29:05 — New Zealand: travel flows, cost of living, politics

• Kiwis using Australia as a launchpad; departures muddying migration stats.
• Cost of living pressures; coalition under Chris Luxon trailing in polling.
• Dairy dependence on China moderated; Christchurch rebuild once boosted the economy, now cooled.

00:33:32 — Australia to recognize Palestine: symbolism vs. security

• Planned announcements at the UNGA alongside France/UK/Canada.
• Netanyahu’s pushback; everyone says “no role for Hamas” in the day-after.
• Israeli protests against extended occupation; Arab League reluctance to police Gaza.
• A (half-flippant) British “mandate” idea vs. feasibility; Somalia as an example of regional peacekeeping success; current leadership gap to assemble an Arab-led force.

00:43:05 — Hiroshima & Nagasaki at 80: necessity debate revisited

• Immediate vs. long-tail casualties; cancer and birth defects; legal actions in Japan.
• Senior U.S. military figures (Eisenhower, Nimitz, others) cited as skeptical of necessity; Soviets’ late entry in the Pacific war as a factor.
• Recommendation to read widely; Paul Ham’s “Hiroshima Nagasaki” as a starting point.

00:53:29 — U.S. housing and politics: who sets the agenda?

• First-home median age moving from ~28 to ~38; 2008’s lingering scars.
• Young men shifting toward Trump; Democrats’ reactive posture.
• Tariffs as a consumption tax; pass-through risks to inflation; corporate strain and loan-taking; watch upcoming indicators.

01:01:50 — Food stamps & junk food limits

• 12 U.S. states considering restrictions (especially sodas).
• Government paternalism vs. personal choice; cooking skills gap; case for basic food education over bans.

01:04:51 — Trump–Putin in Alaska; Ukraine reality check

• Optics of a meeting; Ukraine constitution forbids ceding land; Crimea’s intractability.
• Reliability issues with Moscow agreements; tariffs complicating Alaska supply via Canada.

01:07:27 — Cacio e pepe wars (BBC vs. Rome)

• Purist recipe (pasta, pepper, pecorino), emulsion with pasta water—no butter/cream.
• Finger-wagging at British “improvements,” with a side of hypocrisy charges in summer variations.
• Carbonara authenticity chat (guanciale; no cream).

01:10:01 — NRL: ladder shifts and a trainer’s “gamesmanship”

• Panthers surge; Storm and Raiders in the mix; Broncos hammered by Roosters.
• Trainer stepping into a kicker’s line—five-week ban, $50k fine; learning from AFL’s runner reforms.

01:14:55 — AFL culture & form lines

• Gabba crowd scuffle; how crowds have changed since the suburban-era melees.
• Scott Pendlebury on track for 400; Collingwood and Brisbane wobble despite talent.
• Isaac Heaney’s purple patch as Brownlow “smokey”; nine sides for eight spots; big fixtures loom.
• Carlton locks in Michael Voss through 2026; list-management changes brewing.

01:26:24 — Cricket: T20 streak, Darwin’s Test pitch, Ashes selection

• Australia’s T20 run; Tim David’s monster hitting; iconic crowd catch.
• Case for a winter Test in Darwin to diversify venues/opponents.
• Ashes schedule (Perth, Brisbane D/N, Adelaide, MCG, SCG) compresses rest windows; pace rotation likely.
• Opener conundrum: Labuschagne with Khawaja risks slow starts; Boland automatic at the MCG.

01:34:27 — Rugby: Giteau Law scrapped

• Wallabies free to pick more overseas-based players.
• Manage workloads for key big men (e.g., Will Skelton) ahead of major tournaments.

01:36:21 — Iran drought & “weather manipulation” claim; sign-off

• Iranian TV guest alleges U.S./Israel redirect rain clouds; hosts file under conspiracy.
• Wrap and see-you-next-week.

— Notable moments & quotes —

• 00:05:14 — Hong Kong Jack: “Premeditated deliberate … murder.”
• 00:05:26 — Jack the Insider: “Planned, organised and designed to cause maximum injury and pain.”
• 00:13:38 — Hong Kong Jack (on Folbigg payout): “Bit skinny. I would have thought.”
• 00:25:40 — Hong Kong Jack: “In a battle on a tech issue, I’ll back the 13- and 14-year-olds every day of the week.”
• 00:39:17 — Hong Kong Jack (half-flippant): “Go back to 1946 and have another Palestine mandate … give it to the Brits to run as a colony.”
• 00:47:20 — Jack the Insider (quoting Eisenhower): Japan was “already defeated … dropping the bomb was completely unnecessary.”
• 00:59:33 — Hong Kong Jack: “Trump controls the Democrats’ narrative … He’s in charge of both parties.”
• 01:10:45 — Hong Kong Jack (NRL trainer): “That was gamesmanship.”
• 01:22:11 — Hong Kong Jack (on Heaney): “He’s my smokey for a Brownlow.”
• 01:33:12 — Jack the Insider (Ashes): “There’s nowhere to hide if you’re a bit injured.”