Wait Long Enough?

In this episode of Talking Real Money, Don and Tom dive deep into the question of whether long-term investing in stocks truly guarantees returns. Challenging the conventional wisdom, they examine research by Professor Edward McQuarrie that reveals 10- and even 30-year periods in U.S. and international markets where investors lost money—especially when adjusting for inflation. Despite these sobering findings, the hosts reaffirm their belief in equity markets, emphasizing diversification and the historical outperformance of stocks over bonds. They also critique opaque, sales-driven investment products like private credit funds and annuities, urging listeners to remain skeptical, informed, and grounded in long-term strategy rather than promises of guaranteed returns.

0:24 David Booth says stocks average 10% long-term

1:20 McQuarrie: no guarantee of gains, even over 20 years

2:27 Long-term losses happened—inflation-adjusted

3:16 Diversification helps but doesn’t solve everything

4:08 Most individual stocks lose money—own them all

6:04 Stocks reward, but not guaranteed

11:43 Investing = optimism about the future

13:02 Market timing fails—psychics underperform

15:25 Private credit fund OCIC = high risk, low transparency

18:06 OCIC fees are sky-high—10%+ annually

19:42 Annuities explained—loss of control, high costs

21:53 Annuities ≠ bank CDs—know the difference

24:52 OCIC loaded with fees, risky loans

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