Oil at critical support amid geopolitical, trade developments

Mixed PMI data, sticky inflation, and a reality check for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut hopes are on the menu of today’s episode. Slower US service activity and hotter-than-expected price pressures have markets rethinking (but just a little) about a September rate cut, sending 2-year yields climbing. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff threats — including on chips, drugs, and even countries buying Russian oil — are fueling trade chaos. Equities look mixed, though tech stars like Palantir defied the trend. In Europe, luxury struggles, but defense and tech stand tall. Shell and BP beat expectations despite earnings declines, focusing on shareholder returns over aggressive green spending. Saudi Aramco continues to borrow to pay dividends, while oil flirts with key support on mixed signals — from a possible Russia-Ukraine air truce to Trump’s tariff threats on Indian oil flows. Will oil crack lower? Can the Fed actually cut rates in this environment? And how will Europe navigate the digital age with no real leverage?
Listen to find out more!