More Fed cuts, more OPEC supply, more political uncertainty

The US economy added just 22,000 jobs last month – a big miss versus expectations. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% and revisions showed job losses in June. Manufacturing shed another 12K jobs, hinting at deeper cracks. Markets now believe the Fed has no choice: rate cuts are coming, probably more than one, and maybe more than 50bp.
But here’s the twist – inflation is still muted, even as tariffs drive up producer prices. Will Thursday’s CPI finally reveal the pressure at the consumer level? Or will weak inflation force the Fed’s hand even further?
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 hit new highs, Nvidia slipped, Broadcom soared and Asia kicked off the week on dovish Fed optimism. In Japan, PM Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation weighed on the yen, while France braces for political turmoil of its own.
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