July 25th, 2025 | Cautious Bank Outlook, Crypto Law Update, Dividends or Buybacks, New Tax Rules, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), Toast, Inc. (TOST), American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) & (ABT)

Big bank earnings give a cautious green light on the economy

Every quarter we get excited about listening to and reading about how things went for the big banks in the most recent quarter as they release their earnings. I’m primarily talking about JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. We have held a couple large banks in our portfolio for years and they have provided very useful information along with great returns as well. Overall, the big banks were happy with the low rates of consumer delinquencies and writing off debt that was unrecoverable stayed around the same rate as last year. One banker made a comment that with a 4.1% unemployment rate it’s not likely to see a lot of weakness in their portfolio. This is something we have said for quite a while now, but we believe as long as the employment picture stays strong, the economy should do well. Deal making for the banks looked pretty good across the board and all of them had profit increases compared to one year ago. The overall tone from the bankers was largely upbeat, but a couple banks did call out some concern around commercial real estate and office buildings. There are certain cities with economies that are doing well, but there are other areas that are more problematic and the banks generally have commercial real estate in many markets across the country. To summarize, it appears the bankers feel pretty good, but they still remain somewhat cautious as bankers always should.

Understanding new legislation on cryptocurrencies

Last week new legislation on cryptocurrencies was announced as the Genius Act, which stands for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US stable coins, made its way through Congress and to the President’s desk. The legislation is supposed to provide licensing and oversight for stable coins as issuers must obtain licenses through either a national trust bank charter with the OCC, which stands for the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, or a state level money transmission license. The Genius Act is supposed to provide consumer protection in the case of the issuer of a stable coin becoming insolvent. The solution in the Genius Act is to prioritize stable coin holder claims so the holders of those coins should be able to get their money back. This is nowhere near the safety one has in a bank where your deposits are insured by the FDIC should that bank fold. I feel this law will give people a false sense of security and I don’t believe it will prevent a major collapse of stable coins. There’s also a conflict of interest from President Trump‘s promotion of digital currencies since he himself has a coin and his sons Donald Trump Junior and Eric Trump run a bitcoin mining firm called American Bitcoin and are heavily involved in the crypto space. I believe the whole thing is just adding to the bubble of cryptocurrencies. Keep in mind that a bubble can last 10 to 12 years, if not longer, but the bigger it gets the bigger the financial disaster it causes.

What is better for investors stock dividends or stock buybacks?

Unfortunately, there’s no hard and fast rule based on performance figures in terms of what is better for stock investors, but I would have to lean towards stock dividends. If you look at the right companies paying dividends over a 10-year period you can find that perhaps the company you invested in is now giving you a yield of maybe 7-8% based on your initial investment. Those dividends can be a really great tool for long-term investing and while companies could always stop the dividend, most companies that have paid a dividend for the long-term do not like to stop or even reduce paying that dividend. This can help stabilize returns during downturns and may help investors be less emotional. A problem with stock buybacks is they can be announced and the stock may see a little bounce, but then it’s possible that management does not fulfill the commitment to buy back all the shares they had planned to. Also, if the company or the markets were to hit a rough patch many times the first thing to go is stock buybacks. It is also possible that the company could do a stock buyback, but within a year or two the stock might drop below the price where the repurchases occurred, which would make those investments a questionable use of capital. Benefits to stock buybacks include the fact that there’s no taxes for shareholders when they occur and they do increase your ownership of that business. While dividends are generally taxed, they are tax favored and depending on one’s tax bracket you may pay very little or no tax at all. And don’t forget about the compounding effect of reinvesting those dividends back into another investment. Unfortunately, it has become harder to find good quality companies paying dividends for a reasonable price. Looking at the S&P 500 index, the yield is now only 1.2%, which is near the all-time low that was hit during the dot-com bubble. Over the long-term history of the S&P 500, it’s yield is generally around the 10-year Treasury and I was surprised to learn that up until the 1960’s, the S&P 500 actually generally yielded more than the 10-year Treasury. Even looking just 10 years ago they were both yielding around 2%, but currently the spread between the two is about 3%. This comes as the S&P 500 has seen its forward P/E based on the next 12 months of earnings expand from 17 to around 22 during that time frame. Could this be another warning sign that the S&P 500 index is overvalued?

Financial Planning: New Tax Rules for Tips and Overtime

Starting in tax year 2025 and through 2028, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act exempts up to $25,000 in tip income and up to $12,500 in qualifying overtime pay per individual from federal income tax—doubling to $50,000 and $25,000 respectively for married couples filing jointly. The tip exemption applies only to workers in occupations where tips are customary and must be properly reported through W-2s. The overtime deduction applies only to the premium portion of overtime wages—i.e., the extra pay above an employee’s standard hourly rate—and must be paid in accordance with Section 7 of the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), meaning it only covers overtime worked in excess of 40 hours per week under federal rules. Overtime paid under state laws or union contracts does not qualify unless it also meets the FLSA criteria. The full exemption is available to taxpayers with modified adjusted gross incomes up to $150,000 (single) or $300,000 (married filing jointly) and begins to phase out above those levels. To claim the exemption, workers must file a new IRS Form 10324-T with their annual tax return. Keep in mind Social Security, Medicare, and state taxes still apply to the tip and overtime pay. The policy begins with wages and tips earned on or after January 1, 2025, with claims first filed on 2025 tax returns in 2026.

Companies Discussed: Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), Toast, Inc. (TOST), American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) & Abbot Laboratories (ABT)