Hein Goemans - It’s Going to take More Dying and Destruction Before Russia is Prepared to make Deal

After the first anniversary of the full-scale war, a febrile and
impatient media is asking the question “when will the war end” with
greater frequency. There are many reasons for this – of course a concern
for the loss of life, the destruction, and the economic pain. But also,
war fatigue, misunderstanding the combatant’s motivations and actions,
and a general lack of historical perspective, leading them to
misunderstand the mechanics and practice of warfare. My guest this week
is Hein Goemans, an expert in war termination theory (in other words,
how wars end). He explains that “It’s going to take a lot more dying and
destruction before both sides are prepared to make a deal, or even
start defining what a deal could like”. So is there any clear end to
this war in sight, or are the two sides too far apart, with radically
different objectives.
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SPEAKER:
Hein Goemans, professor at the University of Rochester in the United
States. His academic specialism is war termination theory. Hein is a
specialist in the politics of war, war termination and territorial
disputes. His first book, War and Punishment (2000), and asks what keeps
wars going and what makes them stop, and focuses on the role of leaders
in war termination – with an empirical focus on World War I. His second
book, Leaders, and International Conflict (2011) and focuses on the
role of leaders in war initiation, a very relevant area of study in the
context of the Ukraine war. Goemans' publications have appeared in the
American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political
Science, the Journal of Politics, and other publications. Goemans has
discussed his work on war termination in the context of the war in
Ukraine in articles in The New Yorker and the Monkey Cage as well as in
international media, such as the BBC's The Inquiry, Cable News CBC,
Euronews, CNN Portugal, France 24, and other outlets as well as in print
media such as The Financial Times, Der Spiegel, and Die Zeit.
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LINKS:
https://www.ft.com/content/b3f7ea51-dcc2-4011-b3ac-45faabdc35c7
Ukraine series: how long will the war last? What history tells us about why some conflicts endure, and others end quickly.
https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/
https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691049441/war-and-punishment
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