240. Keir Giles - Why we should not Fear that Russian Defeat would be more Dangerous than Russian Victory

Calls to treat as legitimate the ‘security concerns’ raised by Russia,
and to account for these in a future settlement of the war in Ukraine,
disregard the fact that Moscow’s requirements are fundamentally
incompatible with European security. Proponents of a settlement in the
war on Ukraine often put forward the idea that Russian ‘security
concerns’ must be taken into account in any such settlement, but also in
broader revisions to the European security system.

These proposals echo the Russian information campaign over the past 30
years to persuade European publics that there can be ‘no security in
Europe without Russia’. They provide false support to the argument that
Western security policy after the collapse of the USSR unnecessarily
encroached on core Russian interests by expanding NATO and forcing
Moscow to militarize its foreign policy. In this telling, Russia was
merely challenging what it viewed as an unjust European security order.
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SPEAKER:
Keir Giles is a senior consulting fellow with the Russia and Eurasia
Programme at Chatham House. Keir has supported Chatham House in its
Russia-focused research since 2013 and previously worked with the BBC
Monitoring Service and the UK Defence Academy, where he wrote and
advised on Russian military, defence, and security issues – including
human factors influencing Russian security policy, Russian strategy and
doctrine, the Russian view of cyber and information security, and
Russia’s relations with its neighbours in northern Europe.

Keir is the author of multiple publications explaining the Russian
approach to warfare. These include NATO’s Handbook of Russian
Information Warfare; and Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront
the West. He examined consistent patterns of Western success and failure
in deterring Russian aggression. His most recent book is Russia’s War
on Everybody: And What it Means for You, which describes the human
impact of Russia’s campaigns to acquire power and influence around the
world.
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BOOKS:
Russia's War on Everybody: And What it Means for You (2022)
Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West (2019)
The Turning Point for Russian Foreign Policy (2017)
The State of the NATO-Russia Reset (2011)
Potential Challenges to Public Order and Social Stability in the Russian
Federation (2011)
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LINKS:
https://twitter.com/KeirGiles
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/06/how-end-russias-war-ukraine
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