107 - Kevin Dorst: Bayesian Reasoning, Irrationality, and Political Polarization

Kevin Dorst is a professor in the Department of Linguistics and Philosophy at MIT. He works at the intersection between philosophy and social science, focusing on rationality. In this episode Kevin and Robinson discuss just this: They begin with classical theories of rationality and where they fall short before discussing instances where the empirical literature shows that humans do not reason rationally at all, touching on the gambler’s fallacy, sunk-cost reasoning, and the hindsight bias. They then move on to discuss the phenomenon of political polarization, which draws both on our capacity for rationality and irrationality. Make sure to check out Kevin’s Substack, Stranger Apologies.

Stranger Apologies: https://kevindorst.substack.com

Kevin’s Website: https://www.kevindorst.com

Kevin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevin_dorst

OUTLINE

00:00 In This Episode…

01:02 Introduction

04:14 Rationality and Philosophy

15:14 Bayesian Reasoning

45:10 The Hindsight Bias

56:53 What is Bias?

01:04:03 The Gambler’s Fallacy

01:15:00 Sunk-Cost Reasoning

01:19:07 Political Polarization

01:40:12 Talking Through Disagreement

Robinson’s Website: http://robinsonerhardt.com

Robinson Erhardt researches symbolic logic and the foundations of mathematics at Stanford University. Join him in conversations with philosophers, scientists, weightlifters, artists, and everyone in-between.