Ep. 9 Ker Gibbs Reflects on Business Reactions to US-China Trade War Under Trump 1.0 and Predicts Trump 2.0

Host Wenchi Yu speaks with Ker Gibbs, author of Selling to China and former Chairman and President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai about his decades of experience navigating the evolving U.S.-China economic relationship—including the pivotal shifts that began during the first Trump administration.

He highlighted the shift that occurred during Trump’s first term:

• Many American companies initially greeted Trump’s unique approach with a mix of skepticism and curiosity, wondering if his negotiating style could actually work.
• The Trump administration was prepared to let U.S. businesses endure short-term pain to address long-standing issues. Not just the tariffs, but the ban on WeChat and TikTok were examples of putting pain on our own companies.

Ker's prediction for Trump 2.0:

• It’s not entirely clear what the goal is this time, but Trump seems to be using tariffs as a lever to push for U.S. economic “self-sufficiency”—a concept mirrored in China’s own economic policies.
• Going forward, Trump’s method seems to be "shoot first and negotiate later."
• China’s economy is transitioning toward a low-growth, low-profit model.
• Multinational companies operating in China may need to adopt an entirely different business model, one that disconnects them from other markets.
• Immediate term, expect more pain; medium term, US-China trade disputes are likely to be resolved; long term: deep ideological differences and mutual distrust will persist and are unlikely to improve.

Perspectives with Wenchi Yu

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