Get ready for the (soft?) US jobs number

Friday 5th September 2025

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It would be a big surprise if we saw strong growth in the US non-farm payrolls numbers out tonight (Australia time). As NAB’s Ken Crompton describes, the Challenger Jobs Survey showed sharp rise sin layoffs, the weekly jobless claims continue to rise, and the number of new jobs halved in the latest ADP report. He tells Phul that the report is unlikely to have any impact on the chance of a cut in the September Fed meeting, but it could influence the number of cuts that follow beyond that this year. Whilst the jobs market appears soft, the ISM Services report showed strength, and equity markets are behaving as though everything is just fine. The S&P hit another new high at the US close, for example.

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