Winter is Coming for OpenAI
- Author
- Jacob Haimes and Igor Krawczuk
- Published
- Tue 22 Oct 2024
- Episode Link
- https://kairos.fm/muckraikers/e004
Brace yourselves, winter is coming for OpenAI - atleast, that's what we think. In this episode we look at OpenAI's recent massive funding round and ask "why would anyone want to fund a company that is set to lose net 5 billion USD for 2024?" We scrape through a whole lot of muck to find the meaningful signals in all this news, and there is a lot of it, so get ready!
- (00:00) - Intro
- (00:28) - Hot off the press
- (02:43) - Why listen?
- (06:07) - Why might VCs invest?
- (15:52) - What are people saying
- (23:10) - How *is* OpenAI making money?
- (28:18) - Is AI hype dying?
- (41:08) - Why might big companies invest?
- (48:47) - Concrete impacts of AI
- (52:37) - Outcome 1: OpenAI as a commodity
- (01:04:02) - Outcome 2: AGI
- (01:04:42) - Outcome 3: best plausible case
- (01:07:53) - Outcome 1*: many ways to bust
- (01:10:51) - Outcome 4+: shock factor
- (01:12:51) - What's the muck
- (01:21:17) - Extended outro
Links
- Reuters article - OpenAI closes $6.6 billion funding haul with investment from Microsoft and Nvidia
- Goldman Sachs report - GenAI: Too Much Spend, Too Little Benefit
- Apricitas Economics article - The AI Investment Boom
- Discussion of "The AI Investment Boom" on YCombinator
- State of AI in 13 Charts
- Fortune article - OpenAI sees $5 billion loss in 2024 and soaring sales as big ChatGPT fee hikes planned, report says
More on AI Hype (Dying)
- Latent Space article - The Winds of AI Winter
- Article by Gary Marcus - The Great AI Retrenchment has Begun
- TimmermanReport article - AI: If Not Now, When? No, Really - When?
- MIT News article - Who Will Benefit from AI?
- Washington Post article - The AI Hype bubble is deflating. Now comes the hard part.
- Andreesen Horowitz article - Why AI Will Save the World
Other Sources
- Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Foundation Model Transparency Index
- Cointelegraph article - Europe gathers global experts to draft ‘Code of Practice’ for AI
- Reuters article - Microsoft's VP of GenAI research to join OpenAI
- Twitter post from Tim Brooks on joining DeepMind
- Edward Zitron article - The Man Who Killed Google Search
