Macro Bytes

The independence of the Federal Reserve is under sustained attack from the Trump administration. But despite the totemic significance of the Fed to the global financial system, markets so far seem re…

Stablecoins are digital assets often tied to the value of a fiat currency, such as the dollar. They have the potential to reshape the financial and economic order. In this episode, Luke and Paul disc…

US macro hasn’t taken the summer off. Between tariff threats and trade deals, slowing growth and massive jobs data revisions, and Trump firing the head of the statistics authority and getting an earl…

The Trump administration is pursuing a significant fiscal expansion with its “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act. But with long-term bond yields rising, and Section 899 potentially making the US a less attr…

The Argentinian economy has a history going back decades of chronically low growth, high inflation, and successive crises. However, President Javier Milei’s “shock therapy” of fiscal spending cuts, p…

The US and China have significantly, albeit temporarily, reduced tariff rates. And the US has started to make tariff deals with other countries too, beginning with the UK. So does this mean that econ…

The US has long been economically “exceptional”, with its high growth rate, dominant technology companies, and as the provider of the global safe asset and reserve currency.  However, Trump’s tariffs…

President Trump has announced an enormous increase in US tariffs on the rest of the world. But is this a negotiating tactic that will see tariffs fall over time, or a permanent feature of the new glo…

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced spending cuts to restore headroom against the government’s fiscal rules. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the welfar…

US consumer and business sentiment has fallen significantly recently in response to extremely elevated policy uncertainty with some indicators pointing to elevated recession risks. Luke Bartholomew s…

The CDU-CSU has emerged as the largest party from the German federal elections, and Friedrich Merz will almost certainly become the next Chancellor at the head of a coalition government. But Germany …

Investors can be forgiven for having tariff whiplash, after the threat and then temporary reprieve of 25% US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and the implementation of additional 10% tariffs on China. P…

Elon Musk is set to join the Trump administration as head of the Department of Government Efficiency. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith about the role and influence that Musk and DOGE may have o…

We need to talk about debt. Global government debt is approaching 100% of global GDP. And the incoming Trump administration may be about to increase the large US fiscal deficit still further. Paul Di…

A Trump presidency will have important implications for tax and spending, immigration, trade policy, and regulation. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by James McCann and Lizzy Galbraith to…

Labour’s first budget was a big one – new fiscal rules, large tax and spend increases, and a big rise in investment. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to break down the m…