[Linkpost] “Thoughts on extrapolating time horizons” by Nikola Jurkovic

(written for a Twitter audience)

Has AI progress slowed down? I’ll write some personal takes and predictions in this post.

The main metric I look at is METR's time horizon, which measures the length of tasks agents can perform. It has been doubling for more than 6 years now, and might have sped up recently.

By measuring the length of tasks AI agents can complete, we can get a continuous metric of AI capabilities.

Since 2019, the time horizon has been doubling every 7 months. But since 2024, it's been doubling every 4 months. What if we irresponsibly extrapolated these to 2030?

If AI progress continues at its recent rate, we get AI systems which can do one month (167 hours) of low-context SWE work by the end of 2027. If AI progress continues at the long-run historical rate, we get them by [...]

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First published:

August 11th, 2025

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GAJbegsvnd85hX3eS/thoughts-on-extrapolating-time-horizons

Linkpost URL:
https://x.com/nikolaj2030/status/1954248757513720297

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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