“Hyperbolic model fits METR capabilities estimate worse than exponential model” by gjm

This is a response to https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mXa66dPR8hmHgndP5/hyperbolic-trend-with-upcoming-singularity-fits-metr which claims that a hyperbolic model, complete with an actual singularity in the near future, is a better fit for the METR time-horizon data than a simple exponential model.

I think that post has a serious error in it and its conclusions are the reverse of correct. Hence this one.

(An important remark: although I think Valentin2026 made an important mistake that invalidates his conclusions, I think he did an excellent thing in (1) considering an alternative model, (2) testing it, (3) showing all his working, and (4) writing it up clearly enough that others could check his work. Please do not take any part of this post as saying that Valentin2026 is bad or stupid or any nonsense like that. Anyone can make a mistake; I have made plenty of equally bad ones myself.)

The models

Valentin2026's post compares the results of [...]

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Outline:

(01:02) The models

(02:32) Valentin2026s fits

(03:29) The problem

(05:11) Fixing the problem

(06:15) Conclusion

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First published:

August 19th, 2025

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZEuDH2W3XdRaTwpjD/hyperbolic-model-fits-metr-capabilities-estimate-worse-than

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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