“GPT-5: The Reverse DeepSeek Moment” by Zvi

Everyone agrees that the release of GPT-5 was botched. Everyone can also agree that the direct jump from GPT-4o and o3 to GPT-5 was not of similar size to the jump from GPT-3 to GPT-4, that it was not the direct quantum leap we were hoping for, and that the release was overhyped quite a bit.

GPT-5 still represented the release of at least three distinct models: GPT-5-Fast, GPT-5-Thinking and GPT-5-Pro, at least two and likely all three of which are SoTA (state of the art) within their class, along with GPT-5-Auto.

The problem is that the release was so botched that OpenAI is now experiencing a Reverse DeepSeek Moment – all the forces that caused us to overreact to DeepSeek's r1 are now working against OpenAI in reverse.

This threatens to give Washington DC and its key decision makers a very false impression of [...]

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Outline:

(01:31) GPT-5: The Reverse DeepSeek Moment

(06:18) Did You Know AI Is Making Rapid Progress?

(08:42) No We Are Not Yet Hitting A Wall

(12:34) Models Making Money And Being Useful Does Not Mean Less Progress

(20:19) We Could Massively Screw This All Up

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First published:

August 18th, 2025

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eFd7NZ4KpYLM4ocBv/gpt-5-the-reverse-deepseek-moment

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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