Israel Today: Ongoing War Report - Update from 2025-09-15 at 08:06

HEADLINES
Leaked transcripts reveal Israel eyed Fordo strike
Gaza City invasion hostages kept above ground
Fragile ceasefire amid Iran proxies diplomacy

The time is now 4:00 AM in New York, I'm Noa Levi and this is the latest Israel Today: Ongoing War Report.

Good morning. The region remains on edge as the uneasy pause in the Israel-Iran confrontation persists, even as signals from both sides hint at readiness for further escalation. Across the Middle East, analysts caution that the current lull is fragile, with broader regional dynamics guiding any next moves.

In Iran and its network, recent disclosures offer a window into high-stakes calculations that preceded and shadowed the most intensive days of fighting. Leaked transcripts reveal discussions among Israeli leaders before and during the earlier phase of the conflict about possible strikes on key Iranian sites, including the Fordo facility, with explicit interest in destabilizing Tehran’s regime and, at times, contemplating actions against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The conversations also show active consideration of securing US participation, including refueling support and the timing of any American strike. The material underscores the intensity of debates within Israel about how far to go and how to synchronize with Washington, even as US officials stressed the need to protect civilians and pursue a path toward de-escalation and diplomacy when possible. In the broader regional calculus, Iran’s proxies—including in Syria and Lebanon—have faced pressures from Israeli and allied operations, complicating Tehran’s efforts to project power. Syria has a newly restructured government, and Lebanon continues to wrestle with the presence of militant groups that have long been linked to Tehran. Observers note these dynamics shape the likelihood of renewed proxy activity, even as practical capabilities of some factions have been degraded by sustained strikes.

In Gaza, the battlefield remains deeply contested and highly consequential for civilians and combatants alike. Israel’s military leadership has outlined a plan for a Gaza City ground operation that officials say could unfold over two to three months, followed by substantial time required to clear the area. Reservists are being mobilized, and designated humanitarian corridors are being expanded to facilitate civilian movement away from combat zones. Yet the civilian toll remains central to the strategic calculations. Hamas is reportedly housing hostages in homes and tents above ground in Gaza City to complicate the IDF’s offensive and to amplify international pressure on Israel to pause or halt the campaign. Analysts emphasize that the group’s leverage is shrinking as civilian outflows and rising costs strain its operational capacity, even as it seeks to shield itself behind civilian casualties for political effect.

On the ground in Israel’s interior and neighboring regions, domestic developments continue to unfold against a backdrop of regional tension. In Gaza’s southern and central camps, clashes and military activity persist in the context of ongoing operations. In the political arena, investigators have highlighted corruption probes linked to government ministers and ministries, underscoring concerns about governance as security operations continue. And in the West Bank and northern settlements, the IDF is maintaining a posture designed to deter attacks while preparing for potential escalations tied to political events and regional diplomacy.

Internationally, Washington’s posture remains central to the calculus. A visit by a US official to discuss the fallout from regional strikes and efforts to broker a Gaza truce illustrates the ongoing push to align security aims with humanitarian considerations. The US under President Donald Trump’s line has been described by some commentators as pursuing peace through strength, working in close...