Temporary Trends, Permanent Consequences: The Dangers of Short-Term Thinking in Underwriting

🔍 Episode Overview:

In this episode of Ironclad Underwriting, host Jason Williams is joined by business partner Frank Patalano to discuss one of the most common (and costly) red flags in real estate investing: relying on short-term trends for long-term decisions. From unsustainable rent growth projections to unrealistic interest rate assumptions, the duo breaks down the pitfalls of over-aggressive underwriting and emotional investing. This is a must-listen for investors, underwriters, and CRE professionals navigating volatile markets with uncertain futures.

📌 Topics Covered:

✅The trap of using peak rent growth projections (San Antonio & Phoenix case studies)

✅How low interest rates and aggressive refi assumptions led to financial ruin

✅Emotional investing and the illusion of permanent market conditions

✅Airbnb, oil, RV parks: how temporary trends lure in short-term thinkers

✅Why underwriting needs to account for cycles, not spikes

✅Lessons from missed deals, failed forecasts, and post-COVID volatility

✅The fine line between healthy risk and reckless optimism

💬3 Key Quotes:

✅”Markets run in cycles: you’ve got to think of the ups and the downs. Especially if you’re doing mortgages, not 30-year holds.”

✅”People were underwriting like interest rates would stay at 2.5% forever… then rates tripled.”

✅“Temporary trends feel permanent in the moment, but in real estate, the long game always wins.”

🎧 Connect with Jason:

✅ LinkedIn

✅ https://IroncladUnderwriting.com

✅Linktree

🎧 Connect with Frank:

✅LinkedIn