The Simple Formula: When Arithmetic Beats Expertise in Predictions

A deep dive into how plain arithmetic models—adding and multiplying—can predict real-world outcomes as well as, or better than, seasoned experts. We trace Meehl’s landmark findings, Dawes’s three-part view of expert judgment (variables, weights, and noise), and the surprising power of unit-weight models. With real-world examples—from education and health to crime and hiring—we’ll explore why simple numbers can outperform intuition and what this means for decision-making.

Note: This podcast was AI-generated, and sometimes AI can make mistakes. Please double-check any critical information.

Sponsored by Embersilk LLC