Exceedance, Return Period, and the 63.2% Rule: A Practical Look at Extreme-Event Risk

In this Deep Dive episode, we demystify exceedance frequency and return period: what they are, how they relate, and why a 100-year label is not a deadline. We explore how rare events are modeled (Poisson intuition), the meaning of 'at least once in its return period,' and why these concepts matter for floods, earthquakes, wind loads, and designing safer infrastructure.

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