#142 Strategic Golf Mastering Probabilities on the Course.

The Podcast describes golf strategy, which focuses on minimizing the likelihood of mistakes rather than striving for the perfect shot. Hogan and mathematician Scott Fawcett analyze how golf is influenced by random events and develop the concept of the "Ice Cream Cone of Misses." This strategy aims to avoid the most detrimental errors by skillfully placing the target point, ultimately leading to lower scores. Professional golfers like Justin Thomas and Cameron Smith successfully apply this principle by steering potential misses into less risky areas. The Podcast argues that planning for mistakes, instead of hoping for perfection, is the key to success in golf.

The "Ice Cream Cone" model is a visual representation of the dispersion of a golfer's shots. Imagine standing in an open field and hitting 100 balls with each club in your bag. Some shots will be perfect, but most will veer left or right. Some will be well-struck, while others will catch the toe or heel of the club and travel shorter distances. When viewed collectively, these shots form an ice cream cone shape.

This cone represents the full range of left and right misses for a golfer at any distance. For professionals, the cone’s tip at about 300 yards is 70 yards wide. This means that most of a pro's drives over 300 yards will land either 35 yards left or right of the target. For amateurs, the cone is naturally wider. They might miss 35 yards in either direction at 250 yards. Regardless, all these shots form the "Ice Cream Cone of Misses," and this concept should guide your thinking on every shot, on every hole, every time you play.

The placement of the "Ice Cream Cone" on the golf course has a significant impact on strategy. Instead of focusing on the perfect shot, golfers—like professionals—should position their entire "Ice Cream Cone" of possible shots in relation to the hole and surrounding hazards.

- Pros often aim their “Ice Cream Cone” at areas that might seem unusual.

For example, this could mean aiming at a hole that points almost directly at trees.

The goal is to minimize the most harmful misses, even if this means the best shots are not ideally positioned.

In the example with trees, a pro might align the left side of their "Ice Cream Cone" with the fairway, even if it means some perfect shots might hit the trees.

- The benefit of this strategy is that the worst 30% of shots—normally landing in water and costing 1.5 strokes—are kept in play.

- At the same time, shots on the right side of the cone might be slightly worse but are still kept in play.

The same concept applies to approach shots. Instead of aiming directly at the pin, which is often located at the edge of the green, golfers should target the center of the green.

- This ensures that the majority of the "Ice Cream Cone" lands on the green, reducing the risk of costly misses into water or bunkers.

- Even if some shots end up farther from the hole, players still have good chances for par or better.

In conclusion, positioning the "Ice Cream Cone" is a strategic decision aimed at minimizing the impact of mistakes and improving overall scores. Rather than striving for the perfect shot, golfers should account for their entire range of shots and position the "Ice Cream Cone" to limit the consequences of errors.