Eurodollar University

The US Treasury yield curve has inverted, likely because the US economy is weak sauce. But what if we focused solely on shadow-money variables? Can we confirm the inversion warning via measures of sh…

The US Treasury curve has inverted. The countdown to the next American recession has begun. We review what happened, where the inversion is in the yield curve and whether there are enough life jacket…

An update on the US Treasury yield and Eurodollar futures curve shapes. Distorted? Contemplative? Grotesque? Retching cat chart pattern?

----EP. 202 REFERENCES----
Odd Curve Shapes, or More Chinese Tha…

The 1940s witnessed monstrous increases in consumer prices. But it wasn't inflation. In the 1960s? Smaller increases, but it was inflation. What's the difference? What about today?

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You won't believe it but Janet Yellen said in 2013 that narrative supply - not money supply - can be an effective tool. Turns out most Fed action is just popular psychology and the madness of crowds.

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Repurchase agreements are short-term collateralized loans made amongst banks. What happens when one party refuses to return the collateral? It's a "fail". They happen in swarms during unhealthy monet…

Russia has been told they're out of SWIFT! Kind of. And not right away. And only some Russian banks, kind of. Does it matter? What is SWIFT?

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Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn
Appl…

On February 24, 2021 Fedwire broke down for several hours - it was the the feather that broke the economic recovery camel's back. Copper, gold, silver, the yuan, Kiwi dollar, Treasuries, swap spreads…

A look at interest rate swap spreads relative to nominal US Treasury yields identifies constrained bank balance sheet capacity. Monetary measures like swap spreads, Eurodollar futures, yield curve fl…

An insider's view of regulations, bond markets, bank reserves, central banks, quantitative easing, fancy wines, when it's inappropriate to drink cappuccinos, government-guaranteed bank loans and more…

Mohamed El-Erian appeared on Hidden Forces, a great podcast by Demitri Kofinas. But instead of challenging consensus narratives or thinking critically about the power shaping our world El-Erian obfus…

Anne Stevenson-Yang has been living in, writing about and/or focusing her work on China for more than 35 years. We discuss: employment not being a bureaucrat's concern, the transition to uneconomic a…

Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski dive into debunking central banking myths, explaining the effects of the past on our current time, and more in this November 2021 episode of Blockworks' "On the Margin" …

A collateral call in Belgium! Foreign officials are selling US Treasuries! American banks extending less credit to the rest of the world! Japan borrowing more! These, and other, *nerdy* insights for …

Consumer inflation expectations peaked in October/November 2021, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations. Market based inflation expectations (Treasury Inf…

Caution! Ignore this market warning at your peril. The Eurodollar futures market inversion had deepened and broadened. Eurodollar yields inverted before, for example in 2000, 2005 and 2018. Turned ou…

The US government bond market appears to be out of step with CPI, a booming economy and money printing by central banks - what gives? We review two Federal Reserve officials explain that QE is very, …

Journalists Kate Duguid and Eric Platt explain that US government bond markets believe the Federal Reserve will be able to tame inflation. Actually bond markets believe the Fed doesn't know what it's…

China's 2021 trade surpluses were gigantic, so why isn't the yuan surging too? We review China's 2014-21 trade and currency experience from the perspective of the eurodollar, the international reserv…