53. Forward Defence, Hamas-Hezbollah War With Israel and Iran's Path to Nuclear Bombs

Eslami, M., & Kaunert, C. (2025). Forward Defence, Hamas-Hezbollah War With Israel and Iran’s Path to Nuclear Bombs. Global Policy, 16(2), 299–305. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70011

This paper argues that escalating Middle East conflicts could push Iran toward developing nuclear weapons. It contends that Iran’s “forward defence” doctrine—relying on proxies, missile systems, and cyber capabilities to confront threats abroad—has eroded following Israeli strikes, assassinations of proxy leaders, and the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime. The weakening of groups like Hezbollah and Hamas has led to more direct Iranian-Israeli clashes. While Shia Islam bans nuclear arms through religious rulings, historical precedents show such prohibitions can be lifted in existential crises. Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and advanced centrifuge capacity now place it close to weapons capability, far beyond the 2015 nuclear deal limits. Most facilities are underground, making them resilient to attack. The paper concludes that if “forward defence” fails, Iranian institutions may withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and pursue nuclear arms, creating a potential “balance of terror” unless preventive policies are enacted.