“Our bet on whether the AI market will crash” by Remmelt, Marcus Abramovitch 🔸

We made a bet on the AI market crashing by the end of 2026.

The odds are $5k:$25k with an implied probability of 16.67%. If there is no crash, Remmelt pays Marcus $5,000. If there is a crash, Marcus pays Remmelt $25,000.

An AI market crash will be defined, for the purposes of this bet, as at least 2 out of 3 of the following criteria being met.

Here are our criteria:

1. OpenAI's 2025 or 2026 annual revenue is below $1.6 billion.
2. Anthropic's 2025 or 2026 annual revenue is below $400 million.
3. Nvidia's data center revenue in any quarter from now to Q4 2026 is below $8.5 billion. [1]

It's hard to come up with criteria for what constitutes an AI market crash, as many operationalizations face confounding factors that don’t constitute a crash. These criteria were chosen since these are three of the most prominent AI-related [...]

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First published:

May 8th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/G83rs2yex9rmSe6ML/our-bet-on-whether-the-ai-market-will-crash

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.