[Linkpost] “With the Future of the World in Your Hands, Think for 6.77 Years!” by Dawn Drescher

Author: EA Forum Team ([email protected])
Published: Sun 10 Aug 2025
Episode Link: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/yP5og65WSPTXsJtov/with-the-future-of-the-world-in-your-hands-think-for-6-77

Audio note: this article contains 69 uses of latex notation, so the narration may be difficult to follow. There's a link to the original text in the episode description.

This is a link post.

How long should you think about a problem that could determine the future of all existence? A mathematical journey from simple bets to existential risks.

Imagine a simple game. There's a jar full of pebbles, and you’re offered a bet. If you can estimate the number of pebbles to within 10%, you win $100,000. If you’re wrong, you lose $100,000. You have as much time as you want to think. How long should you spend? A day? A week? A year?

Now, imagine a much bigger game. You are part of a team that wants to start OpenAI. Your technology could be revolutionary, potentially ushering in an era of explosive economic growth and solving [...]

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Outline:

(02:07) The Ground Rules: Our Simplified World

(04:10) Model 1: Is This Worth My Time?

(05:49) Model 2: The Cost of Delay

(08:20) Model 3: An Accelerating World

(14:18) Conclusion: The Humility of Models

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First published:

August 9th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/yP5og65WSPTXsJtov/with-the-future-of-the-world-in-your-hands-think-for-6-77

Linkpost URL:
https://impartial-priorities.org/p/with-the-future-of-the-world-in-your

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