[Linkpost] “Where’s my ten minute AGI?” by Vasco Grilo🔸

This is a crosspost for Where's my ten minute AGI? by Hanson Ho, which was originally published on Gradient Updates on 2 May 2025.

Recently, METR released a paper arguing that the length of tasks that AIs can do is doubling every 7 months.

We can see this in the following graph, where the best AI system[1] is able to do roughly hour-long tasks at a 50% success rate on average:

METR's research finds that AIs are rapidly able to do longer and longer tasks, where length is measured by the time it takes for a human with requisite expertise to do the task.

But there's a big problem here – if AIs are actually able to perform most tasks on 1-hour task horizons, why don’t we see more real-world task automation? For example, most emails take less than an hour to write, but [...]

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Outline:

(01:59) 1. Time-horizon estimates are very domain-specific

(04:54) 2. Task reliability strongly influences task horizons

(08:12) 3. Real-world tasks are bundled together and hard to separate out

(10:57) Discussion

The original text contained 9 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

May 19th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5fA7CXc4WK2nTCz3o/where-s-my-ten-minute-agi

Linkpost URL:
https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/where-is-my-ten-minute-agi

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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