CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 36

This episode provides a detailed weekly overview of the global cocoa market for September 7, 2025.

• Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, is facing its worst drought in 46 years. The dry conditions have reduced pod retention, slowed exports since December, and raised concerns about quality. Mid-crop rejection rates have climbed to 5 to 6 percent, compared to the usual 1 percent, and production is forecast to decline by 9 percent to 400,000 metric tons, down from 440,000 last year. 
• Ghana offers a more optimistic picture, with production expected to rise by 8.3 percent to 650,000 metric tons in the 2025–26 season. However, disease pressures, particularly black pod intensified by cold and dry weather, remain a threat. To mitigate risks, the Ghana Cocoa Board has introduced an expanded seedling program targeting 75,000 farms. 
• Nigeria continues to struggle with weather and disease issues, with forecasts pointing to an 11 percent production decline to about 305,000 metric tons. Although June exports showed a modest improvement over last year, persistent post-harvest losses and poor infrastructure, especially in storage and transport, weigh heavily on long-term output. 
• Cameroon faces a projected 6 percent drop in production due to pests and erratic weather. Authorities are considering emergency measures to address infestations. Ecuador is also contending with climate-related challenges. Regions such as Esmeraldas and Manabi are experiencing excess moisture that delays drying and increases disease risk, while Guayas faces drought and potential pod shrinkage. Producers in the country are voicing concerns about the quality of upcoming shipments.