CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 35

This episode delivers a detailed overview of the global cocoa market.

• In the Ivory Coast, cocoa prices have dropped amid forecasts of improved rainfall following the driest 30-day stretch since 1979. Although the rainfall may help stabilize yields ahead of the October harvest, mid-crop quality concerns persist. Estimates for the 2025 mid-crop have been revised downward by 9% to 400,000 metric tons, while cocoa rejection rates during transport have risen significantly, signaling broader quality issues. Export growth has also slowed, totaling 1.79 million metric tons since October.
• Ghana is grappling with the impact of black pod disease due to cold, dry conditions, which have also affected neighboring Nigeria. Nonetheless, Ghana’s cocoa production is projected to increase by 8.3% to 650,000 metric tons, creating a bearish price outlook due to anticipated supply growth. However, farming sector challenges—including delayed payments and shortages of key inputs—could compromise these projections if not promptly addressed.
• Nigeria is expected to see an 11% drop in production, down to 305,000 metric tons, driven by continued adverse weather. This could cause localized shortages despite the broader surplus. Rural transport issues are further increasing post-harvest losses. Cameroon also faces a potential 6% year-over-year decline due to weather variability and pest pressure.
• On a global scale, cocoa demand is weakening, with grindings down in Europe, Asia, and North America, signaling a slowdown in the chocolate sector. With global production forecasted to rise by 7.8% to 4.84 million metric tons, the market is shifting into surplus territory for the first time in four years. Technical indicators show a continued bearish trend, with September 2025 futures breaking below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Current support levels are at $7,385, with resistance now lowered to around $8,000.