CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 19

CropGPT Weekly Cocoa Market Update

Episode Date: May 11, 2025

Welcome to this week’s summary of the global cocoa market, powered by CropGPT. This podcast highlights key market developments, while our website offers full reports, long-term data, and in-depth analysis.

🇳🇬 Nigeria: Cocoa Revival Driven by Youth and Price Incentives

• Rising cocoa prices since 2023 have attracted a new generation of young entrepreneurs to cocoa farming in Nigeria.
• Example: Anoge Akwa, who transitioned from a previous career into cocoa farming, reflecting a broader movement in the sector.
• Local farmers have seen their economic fortunes transform dramatically thanks to the price surge.
• Cocoa prices climbed to nearly $11,000/MT in 2024, up sharply from the $2,200–$2,500/MT range in 2022.
• The rally has been driven by reduced output from major exporters like Ivory Coast and Ghana.

Despite Nigeria being the fourth-largest cocoa producer, growth potential is restrained by:

• Smuggling of cocoa beans
• Broader economic challenges, though cocoa exports have cushioned the impact of naira devaluation

🇨🇮 Ivory Coast: Mid-Crop Outlook Improves

• The Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, is benefitting from above-average rains, boosting mid-crop yield forecasts.
• Output is expected to increase through August and September, with strong support from the rainy season (April–November).
• Local conditions (rainfall and temperature) have been ideal, leading to healthy pod development.

📉 Cocoa Tariffs and Corporate Impact

• The recent price spike has triggered concern among major buyers.
• Hershey Co. is actively seeking tariff exemptions in the U.S. to offset rising raw material costs.
  • Without relief, the company estimates up to $100 million in additional costs per quarter in H2 2025.
• Mondelez and Nestlé are also adapting to price volatility by adjusting retail pricing and packaging strategies.

🌍 Macro Trends and Market Strain

• Global cocoa markets remain volatile, with tariff uncertainty stemming from U.S. policy decisions initiated under the Trump administration.
• These tariffs:
  • Vary across cocoa-growing regions
  • Increase operational complexity
  • Threaten consumer demand for discretionary products like chocolate and snacks

📢 For Full Reports and Data:

Visit CropGPT for:

• Crop health dashboards
• 20+ years of weather and yield records
• Cocoa pricing trends
• Smuggling and export flow insights
• Earning call analysis and corporate exposure tracking