Three Reasons 338Canada’s Riding Projections Don’t apply to North Island Powell River

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - Depending on which election poll you are looking at, the Liberals are leading by anywhere from 5 to 10 points nationally. The last poll to suggest the Conservatives were tied with them was taken by Abacus on February 4, 2025. An Angus Reid poll taken on April 7, 2025 found that in British Columbia the Liberal Party leads by 11 points.

It’s more difficult to get a breakdown riding by riding. While 338Canada’s projections are generally fairly accurate, they are calculated using a mostly proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls. In North Island Powell River there are currently at least three factors which this approach does not take into account.

Firstly there is the widespread reaction to a series of tweets Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn made between 2019 and 2021. Many people feel his comments about residential schools are demeaning to First Nations and at this point 57 elected and former politicians, as well as Frst Nation leaders, have signed a joint letter calling for his resignation. So has every other candidate in North Island Powell River. There is also a little group of 9 politicians, primarily based in Campbell River, who have come out in support of Gunn. However with this kind of controversy going on, it is difficult to believe that 48% of the electorate would vote for Aaron Gunn if there were an election today.

There is also NDP candidate Tanille Johnson’s popularity with some of the electorate, and the fact Bob Chamberlain, former Vice President of the Union of BC Indian Chiefs, endorses her.

Lastly, Liberal candidate Jennifer Lash, her Campaign Manager and Deputy Campaign Manager are all government staffers with an intimate understanding of how elections are run. When I interviewed Deputy Campaign Manager Holly Johnson last week, they had recruited 150 volunteers.

Those are three good reasons to ignore 338Canada’s projections for North Island Powell River.

The only poll that could tell us what is going on in North Island Powell River must be taken here.