Odds of an NDP Majority

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - A day before the election 338Canada is predicting a slight NDP majority.

338Canada is a campaign website that uses available polling data, each riding’s history, and population data etc. It predicts the outcome of the election for every riding and has been used in 13 elections. They have been right close to 90% of the time. They were wrong, but still within the margin of error 6% and totally wrong in 4% out of 1,657 electoral district races.

This prediction for the election was made Oct 16:

49 seats for the NDP
and 42 for the Conservatives.

As this is based on projections that show the popular vote very close (45% to 43% respectively) and this is within the margin of error (4%), the race could still be very close.

The NDP need 47 seats to form a majority government.

They are especially vulnerable in the 5 ridings where their lead is within the margin of error. This means their number of seats could (but probably won’t) sink to 44.

The Conservative lead is especially vulnerable in 10 ridings, which means their total number of seats could be as low as 32.

Our North Island riding is one of the ones where the Conservatives have a slight lead, but the race is so close 338Canada is calling it a ‘toss up.’

The popular vote for:

Andy Kindy was projected at 44%,
Michele Babchuk at 43%
and Nic Dedeluk 13%.
The margin of error for both Kindy and Babchuk is 7%, which means either of them could win.

The Green Party is expected to take 2 ridings (Saanich North and the Islands and Furstenau’s own Victoria Beacon Hill riding) could take 3 and it is possible they may take 4. They are only 2% behind the Conservatives in West Vancouver Sea to Sky, which means that race is still a ‘toss up’ and they are 6% behind the NDP in Furstenau’s old Cowichan Valley riding.

Overall, 338Canada is stating the Conservatives could still win, but gives them only a 20% chance.

They gave the NDP a 69% chance of victory and a 5% chance this will only be a minority government.

Of course if a large number of NDP supporters stay home, as happened when Christy Clark was elected in 2011, the Conservatives could win.

The recent Angus Reid poll identified two segments of the population who are especially pro-NDP: women and males under the age of 34. Given the closeness of the vote, their votes (or decision to not vote) may decide the election.

The Green Party’s hopes of increasing their number of seats beyond 2 most likely depend on the same segments of the population.