How the election might have turned out if it been on October 13

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - 338Canada’s latest projection, taken on Sunday October 13, shows the NDP may be heading towards a majority government. 

The NDP was leading in 49 ridings, but in 6 of these only by a narrow margin.

The Conservative Party of BC was leading in 42 ridings, but in 7 by a nose.

Our own North Island riding is one of the the latter. Conservative candidate Anna Kindy is currently projected as a nose ahead of incumbent Michele Babchuk, 45% to 43%. As the margin of error for these projections is 7%, it is actually too close to call.

A new projection came out Sunday, and the principle change appears to be more people turning to the Green Party. Prior to the the televised all-candidates debate on October 8, it looked like they might be reduced to a single seat (Saanich North and the Islands). Saturday’s projection suggested Furstenau has taken taken a 6 point lead in Victoria-Beacon, as of Sunday that lead is 9%.

When I originally posted this article, the Greens were only 2% behind in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky. This is where Green candidate Jeremy Valeriote lost by a mere 60 votes in 2020. Sunday’s projection shows them tied with the Conservatives at 37% each.

The Greens also appear to be narrowing the gap in Furstenau’s old riding, Cowichan Valley, where John Kouri was 9% behind the NDP on Saturday. On Sunday, it was only 6%.

At the moment the Green Party appears to be leading or in a very close race for 4 seats. They currently do appear to be gaining momentum and hope to send MLA’s from 6 ridings to the next legislature.

North Island is not one of the six. The latest projection shows the Green candidate at a mere 13%.

Of course these statistics are the at best the most likely results if the election were yesterday. There are still five days until the election.