Netanyahu's Precarious Dance: Navigating Political Survival, Gaza Ceasefire, and Global Scrutiny

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It has been a seismic week for Benjamin Netanyahu, whose grip on Israeli politics is suddenly showing fresh signs of slipping as headlines across the world dissect his next moves. The biggest development dropped July 16, when two ultra-Orthodox parties—first United Torah Judaism, then Shas, long his kingmaker—announced they were quitting his coalition after he failed to pass a law granting military draft exemptions for their constituents, a lightning rod issue amid Israel’s ongoing war and mounting conscription fatigue. This leaves Netanyahu with just 50 seats out of 120 in the Knesset, making his government a minority for the first time in this term, which the Times of Israel and Le Monde both called a major political blow and a pivotal moment as Israel negotiates a potential US-backed ceasefire in Gaza.

Despite the drama, Shas’ leadership has stopped short of total opposition, signaling it will not actively undermine his government and might still back him on select legislation. That gives Netanyahu a sliver of hope to maintain power until the Knesset’s summer recess, buying time to lure allies back or stabilize his coalition. But pressure is escalating, with opposition leader Yair Lapid calling for immediate elections and public confidence in Netanyahu’s leadership at one of its lowest points, as detailed by The New Indian Express. Still, Netanyahu is reportedly considering an early election himself, gambling that if he can secure a deal to return some hostages from Gaza he could spin it as a victory to voters tired of war—even as critics charge his approach has prolonged the conflict for political survival.

Amid this internal chaos, Netanyahu made a high-profile visit to Washington on July 7, his third there in six months. Politico and regional analysts observed that the visit, culminating in a formal but ultimately substance-free White House dinner with Donald Trump, was overshadowed by tensions over Israel’s military actions and growing weariness in the US over the endless war. During the trip, Netanyahu argued passionately for a Gaza ceasefire that would secure the hostages’ release, a message he’s repeated in Israeli media rounds and major international press conferences, some of which have gone viral on Instagram and YouTube.

Not all headlines were about policy. Tragedy struck when an Israeli tank shell hit Gaza’s only Catholic Church, killing at least three and wounding others. Netanyahu’s office issued a statement expressing “deep regret,” and he personally phoned Pope Leo XIV to assure him of Israel’s sorrow and to discuss negotiations. The Pope used the moment to press Netanyahu to pursue a ceasefire and resume talks with Hamas, amplifying global scrutiny and embarrassment for a government already hobbled by infighting.

All this as polls show Netanyahu remains in a precarious dance, eager to blame security officials for earlier intelligence failures while seeking to amass power by remaking judicial and government oversight. This week, ministers advanced a bill to let any new government dismiss top officials in their first 100 days, a move widely seen as a strategy for Netanyahu to further consolidate control and potentially negotiate a favorable plea bargain to keep him in office even as his trial grinds on.

For now, Netanyahu stays in the spotlight, balancing survival with spin, as Israel heads into what could be his most defining political summer yet.

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