March Sales Marching, Valuations Adjusting, Costco Hot Dog Changes Coming?

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It’s a magical fifth Friday before a fifth Saturday and we’re ready to roll as we talk about the anticipated strong end to the month. We’re also covering the latest M&A report from the Presidio Group, as well as checking in on our old friend, the Costco Hot dog, Soda Combo.

March is on track to be a standout month in auto sales, the strongest in three years, with sales volumes expected to exceed 1.4 million vehicles. This surge is fueled by higher incentives and increased inventories, keeping consumer interest high as the spring selling season kicks off.

• Sales volumes are estimated to surpass 1.4 million vehicles in March, a 5-6% increase from last year
• Quarterly sales are expected to hit 3.76 million, up 5.5% year-over-year
• "Consumers are still shelling out cash for new vehicles," says Jeff Schuster from GlobalData, highlighting the impact of inventory availability and incentives on mitigating price increases.
• Mixed results are anticipated across automakers due to inventory challenges faced by Japanese brands last year. Toyota, Honda, and Mazda may see 14-22% gains, whereas Stellantis, GM, and Hyundai could face losses.
• Average transaction prices fell to $47,244 in March, a 2% decrease from last year, with electric vehicle days' supply dropping significantly from 159 to 114

According to a new report by M&A firm, The Presidio Group, Dealership values are experiencing a noticeable adjustment as vehicle supplies rise, and profit margins begin to normalize post-pandemic. The market demands increased operational efficiency to sustain profitability.

• Strategic Insights on Profitability: With a 20.4% decline in net pretax profit across the board in 2023, dealers are encouraged to focus on operational efficiencies, customer experience, and innovation in dealership management to navigate the changing tides.
• The latest Presidio Dealer Direction Survey reveals a pragmatic outlook among dealers. While recognizing the challenge of declining profitability, dealers also see opportunities for growth and acquisition, reflecting a resilient and forward-looking industry mindset.
• Even though dealers are in agreement that profits will continue to drop over the next 12 months, they are still optimistic on the reality that profitability is staying above pre-pandemic norms as the average dealership’s net pretax profit last year was still more than 2.5 times 2018’s level, according to a Presidio analysis

In this world where inflation nudges prices upward across the board, we must ask, “Where is the pricing on Costco hot dogs going?”  Nowhere. Costco leaders say the company is holding its famous hot dog-soda combo at the remarkably stable price of $1.50. 

• As the company continues to defy inflation, the combo would cost $4.50 at this point if adjusted
• Speaking about the $1.50 price of the hot dog deal in a recent interview, Richard Galanti, Costco’s long-standin

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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