Honda-Nissan Merger Collapsing, Kazakhstan Invests In Greenfield, Volkswagen <$20K EV

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Today we welcome Steve Greenfield of Automotive Ventures back to the show to talk about the Honda-Nissan merger coming unraveled, how Kazakhstan’s Astana Motors is investing $3.5M into Steve Greenfield’s Automotive Ventures, and Volkswagen's latest affordable model to rival Chinese OEMs.

Show Notes with links:

• The long-anticipated Honda-Nissan mega-merger is on the verge of collapse after Nissan’s board rejected Honda’s push to make it a subsidiary. The move was seen by Nissan executives as a violation of the original merger terms, which had envisioned a holding company structure rather than an outright acquisition.
  • Honda wanted faster reforms, believing that full control would force quicker decision-making at Nissan, whose restructuring has been slow since its 2023 losses.
  • Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida personally traveled to Tokyo on Feb. 6 to inform Honda CEO Toshihiro Mibe that Nissan would oppose the deal.
  • Nissan’s restructuring plan—its third since 2019—focuses on job cuts, reduced production, and cost savings, but Honda was frustrated with the pace of change.
  • If the merger collapses, Nissan may return to a tech-sharing deal with Honda or explore new partners like Foxconn, while Honda could still attempt a hostile takeover by offering ¥500-600 per share to entice shareholders.
  • Both OEMs sell under 4 million vehicles annually, and are under pressure to scale up or risk falling behind global competitors like Hyundai, Toyota, and Volkswagen.

• Back in December, we heard about Steve Greenfield’s trip to Kazakhstan. Yesterday, Astana Motors’ founder and chairman, Nurlan Smagulov made a strategic move into the U.S. automotive technology scene with a $3.5 million investment in Automotive Ventures' Mobility Fund II. This collaboration is designed to provide Astana Motors with visibility into early-stage automotive startups and explore tech implementation back in Kazakhstan.
  • Automotive Ventures has backed 39 mobility startups across three funds, focusing on seed-stage investments globally.
  • The U.S. auto tech sector is booming, with American startups raising $56 billion in Q2 2024—a 57% year-over-year increase.
  • MyVentures, Smagulov’s $20 million venture fund, has supported fintech, AI-driven software, and one of Kazakhstan’s first computer vision startups.
  • Smagulov highlighted Greenfield’s expertise, stating, “If Steve invests in a startup, then in 99% of cases, it is destined for success.”

• Volkswagen is set to unveil a new entry-level EV next month, with a starting price of €20,000 (~$20,800 USD)—significantly undercutting competitors like the $28,000 Nissan Leaf. This marks VW’s long-awaited move toward affordable electric mobility, a promise it first hinted at with the ID. Life concept in 2021.
  • The new model will likely be called the ID.1 (or ID.On

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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