Economist Jonathan Smoke Says The Market's Not Crashing—It’s Accelerating

Shoot us a Text.

Episode #1133: Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke joins Paul to talk tariffs, pent-up demand, and why Q3 might be best experienced with a little Abba. It's a data-rich conversation with serious implications for dealers navigating policy shifts, EV adoption, and consumer behavior.

ASOTU’s coverage of the 45th Annual NAMAD Annual Meeting is brought to you by Connected Dealer Services.

• Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at Cox Automotive, offers a deep dive into today’s economic headwinds and consumer sentiment:
  • Tariffs Echo the 1930s: Jonathan compares today’s tariffs to policies that sparked the Great Depression, but says their current impact is more of a "roller coaster" than a collapse.
  • Stabilization Surprises: Despite the policy shakeups, consumer spending has rebounded this summer. July auto sales were stronger than expected and August showed continued momentum.
  • 7 Million Buyers Still Waiting: Pent-up demand remains real. First-party data from AutoTrader, KBB, and dealer websites shows strong shopping interest, even among buyers still hunting for affordable payments.
  • Best Time in 4 Years to Buy (If You Have Credit): Incentives, leasing deals, and EV discounts make this a prime moment for well-qualified buyers—especially for electrified vehicles.
  • EV Adoption Is Not Slowing Down: July marked the highest market share ever for EVs in the U.S. at 9.1%. EVs are now priced lower than ICE vehicles, and the replacement cycle is kicking in.
  • Electrification Is Inevitable: Jonathan predicts most multi-car households will have at least one EV. He drives a PHEV himself and sees plug-ins as an optimal choice for daily commutes.
  • China May Be the Wildcard: Smoke believes Chinese EVs entering the U.S. market is a matter of when, not if—and that it may be the key to returning to a consistent 17M SAAR.
  • Bonus Track: For Q3, Jonathan's playlist is inspired by ABBA’s Gold—think "Money, Money, Money" meets “Gimme! Gimme! Gimme!” as a soundtrack to the Big Beautiful Bill (BBBBA).

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

Get the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/

JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/